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Rollout: Hit, hit, hit! ...or not

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Saturday, 28 April 2012, at 7:08 p.m.

In Response To: Hit, hit, hit! ...or not (Timothy Chow)

XG1 3-ply hits, as does GNU 2-ply. However, the rollout below strongly disagrees. While 22/15* obviously loses more gammons, I'm a bit startled by how many extra gammons it apparently loses. If someone with XG2 wants to verify this rollout, it might be worth doing so. There could be some tricky cube decisions on both sides in the upcoming play.





White is Player 2

score: 5
pip: 109
7 point match
pip: 133
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--B-A-DAC--b-B-ab--ecbB---:0:0:1:43:0:5:0:7:10
Blue to play 43

1.Rollout18/5 8/4eq: -0.714
Player:
Opponent:		 27.82% (G:3.26% B:0.10%)
72.18% (G:8.29% B:1.11%)		Conf: ± 0.017 (-0.731...-0.697)
Duration: 3 hours 27 minutes
2.Rollout18/4 6/3eq: -0.722 (-0.008)
Player:
Opponent:		 27.52% (G:3.06% B:0.13%)
72.48% (G:8.55% B:1.12%)		Conf: ± 0.017 (-0.739...-0.705)
Duration: 3 hours 37 minutes
3.Rollout122/15* eq: -0.898 (-0.184)
Player:
Opponent:		 28.59% (G:6.62% B:0.33%)
71.41% (G:38.17% B:13.35%)		Conf: ± 0.029 (-0.927...-0.869)
Duration: 2 hours 51 minutes
1 648 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
First 4 moves and cube decisions: 4 ply
Remaining moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

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