| |
BGonline.org Forums
Daily Quiz 5/7; I'm REALLLLY trying here
Posted By: benf In Response To: Daily Quiz 5/7 (Daily Quiz)
Date: Tuesday, 19 June 2012, at 6:15 a.m.
Reasonable Options from cautious to bold: 18/14 6/1, 18/9, 18/13 14/10, 14/5, 18/13 6/2*, 14/9 6/2*, 7/2* 6/2.
The questions are clear, how many more gammons do we win from hitting or pointing, and how many wins do we give up? I also like to consider how much counter play white really has when we are hit here. If we fan for a while we are going to get another checker a good amount of the time, but when we come right in and the dice gods smite us we crack and get a juicy 4 cube thrown our way. I immediately throw out 14/5 for that reason. I also throw out 18/13 6/2* because if I am going to hit to gain gammons I need to have a bigger upside then closing out one checker. The non hitting plays in general do not make sense to me here. I believe we give up less than 10% wins and gain at least 20% gammons from playing aggressively here. Those are, however, just round figures I am pulling out of my ass but I am very confident in them. As far as which hitting play is correct I guess we are down to two.
14/9 6/2*: I like that we do not give up out prime here so even a horror roll is not going to make me cringe. I am most afraid of getting trapped when I make this play but in order to get trapped not only would I have to come right in I would have to roll the non hitting non six/five (depending on where I enter) numbers that bring my spare around and even then I might be able to roll my walk my prime in with my spares. Basically, the risk here is very small but we are also playing for limited reward. Now my opponent only has 16 numbers that fan keeping me from getting that second checker right now, and even if I hit it I am going to have to put a lot of effort into making the two and then one point before he anchors robbing me of the gammons I long for. Two seemingly large down sides to this play. Estimations of w/g(opp. g): 90%/30%(6%)
7/2* 6/2: Yum, the play that makes your opponents' Sphincter ani externus tighten. I was immediately drawn to this play. It sure seems to make things easier when it works. The only problem is when our opponent enters immediately which he still does 11 times in 36. Sure 13, 14, and 15 are not that bad, but I am going to cry myself to sleep when I see 11 come out of that cup, I mean I just had the guy primed! Not only that but I might not remake the prime on the seemingly harmless 13, 14, 15. Estimations: 82%/40%(8%)
For what its worth here is my estimate of what seems like the best non hitting play 18/13 14/10: 95%/12%(5%)
So if my numbers are right, and I am sure they are off but hopefully in the ballpark, we don't need to be bold in playing for the gammon here. 14/9 6/2*
| |
BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.