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BGonline.org Forums
I'm surprised how bad my play was
Posted By: Daniel Murphy In Response To: I'm surprised how bad my play was (Casper van der Tak)
Date: Tuesday, 11 September 2012, at 12:14 a.m.
I don't think Neil would play 13/8, which worsens spares and is very vulnerable (22 numbers put Blue on the roof), so there's 20/15 and 6/1*.
I think Blue needs to hit here despite the board deficit. Blue is up in the race but can't race well with no structure vs. good structure including an an anchor. No play does much, and 6/1* is not the safest play (I thought it was until I went roll by roll) but Opp has a big offensive threat so taking away half a roll (and starting a 2nd board point!) looks worth it. 6/1* has the advantage if White responds with 6-6 6-4 or 6-3, but also, on the numbers that hit after 6/1* but don't after 20/15 have some important mitigating features (yellow, below). Also, if Blue can anchor, he can play freely in an even game. If only the ace point checker is hit, Blue's a favorite make the 20 point anchor. If another checker is hit, Blue usually has direct returns.
hits after 20/15? after 13/8? after 6/1*? 66 yes yes no! 63 yes yes no 64 yes no no 61 no no yes (but 61 doesn't make the bar point) 51 no yes yes 44 no yes yes (but 44 doesn't make the 5 point) 41 no yes yes 11 no yes yes (but 11 doesn't make the 5 point) 55 yes no yes (and you're better after bar/5* than after 20/10*(2) 53 yes yes yes (direct return) 43 yes yes yes (direct return) 33 yes yes yes (hits and points after any play) 32 yes yes yes (direct return) 31 yes yes yes (well, this one's not good! but still a direct return) 21 yes yes yes (favored to make the 20 point) 62 no yes no 65 no no no 54 no no no 52 no no no 42 no no no 22 no no no 17/36 22/36 20/36
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