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Rollout: Two-part problem

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Sunday, 30 September 2012, at 6:31 p.m.

In Response To: Two-part problem (Timothy Chow)

If White is the stronger player then perhaps the double, and the gammonish 10/4 8/4, are correct? How much stronger does White need to be?

		White is Player 2 score: 4 pip: 107 7 point match pip: 110 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=aB-B--DBA-A--Bb--c-cAbbb--:0:0:1:00:0:4:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	55.43% (G: 9.65% B: 0.21%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	44.57% (G: 13.47% B: 0.79%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	55.45% (G: 9.95% B: 0.19%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	44.55% (G: 13.14% B: 1.08%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:	+0.060
Double:	+0.254
Cubeful Equities
No Double:	+0.334
Double/Take:	+0.210 (-0.124)
Double/Drop:	+1.000 (+0.666)
Best Cube action: No Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 2 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double:	± 0.014 (+0.320...+0.348)
Confidence Double:	± 0.019 (+0.191...+0.229)
Double Decision confidence:	100.0%
Take Decision confidence:	100.0%
Duration: 3 hours 00 minute

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

---

		White is Player 2 score: 4 pip: 107 7 point match pip: 110 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=aB-B--DBA-A--Bb--c-cAbbb--:1:-1:1:64:0:4:0:7:10
Blue to play 64

1.	Rollout1	20/10	eq: +0.255
	Player: Opponent: 62.55% (G:5.38% B:0.06%) 37.45% (G:5.39% B:0.16%) Conf: ± 0.008 (+0.247...+0.263) Duration: 1 hour 28 minutes
2.	Rollout1	10/4 8/4	eq: +0.205 (-0.049)
	Player: Opponent: 57.44% (G:11.86% B:0.22%) 42.56% (G:7.91% B:0.53%) Conf: ± 0.009 (+0.196...+0.214) Duration: 1 hour 13 minutes
3.	Rollout1	8/2 6/2	eq: +0.111 (-0.144)
	Player: Opponent: 54.27% (G:13.43% B:0.22%) 45.73% (G:15.49% B:1.44%) Conf: ± 0.010 (+0.101...+0.121) Duration: 1 hour 13 minutes
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 2 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

Messages In This Thread

• Two-part problem
  Timothy Chow -- Saturday, 29 September 2012, at 7:52 p.m.
  • Two-part problem
    Stick -- Saturday, 29 September 2012, at 8:17 p.m.
    • Two-part problem
      Seth -- Saturday, 29 September 2012, at 9:36 p.m.
    • Two-part problem
      benf -- Sunday, 30 September 2012, at 1:17 a.m.
  • Two-part problem
    Smcrtorchs -- Saturday, 29 September 2012, at 10:55 p.m.
    • Two-part problem
      Timothy Chow -- Saturday, 29 September 2012, at 11:01 p.m.
  • Two-part problem
    Igor -- Saturday, 29 September 2012, at 11:58 p.m.
    • Two-part problem
      Stick -- Sunday, 30 September 2012, at 12:30 a.m.
      • Two-part problem
        Igor -- Sunday, 30 September 2012, at 1:38 a.m.
        • Two-part problem
          Daniel Murphy -- Sunday, 30 September 2012, at 1:59 a.m.
          • Two-part problem
            Igor -- Sunday, 30 September 2012, at 2:16 a.m.
  • Rollout: Two-part problem
    Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 30 September 2012, at 6:31 p.m.