[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums

Last paragraph

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Wednesday, 17 October 2012, at 5:08 p.m.

In Response To: From a game I was watching on GG...redouble (konstantin)

The 'standard' response is that the redoubling window is so small than trying to (correctly) dive through the opening without getting cut to shreds is a bad idea. QF could indicate otherwise here.

If match trailer has more than ~12% cubeless game winning chances (cGWC) then it will never technically be right for match leader to redouble at this score. This is a risk/reward calculation based upon the amount you gain by doubling and it working (i.e. you win the game) compared to the amount you lose by doubling and it not working (i.e. you lose the game). See Kit Woolsey's How to Play Tournament Backgammon for more details.

I attempted to show the position was a take. If true that means that match trailer has at least 9% cGWC. So to be a correct take NOW means match trailer is in a tight range of 9% cGWC < w < 12% cGWC where 'w' is trailer's actual cubeless chances to win the game. That's such a tight range that many players decide that the chances of being able to conclude that w < 12% is too uncertain and just hang onto the cube. I.e. the risk at being > 12% (and giving opp value he shouldn't have) is bigger than the gain when opp is actually in the window.

Messages In This Thread

 

Post Response
Your Name:
Your E-Mail Address:
Subject:
Message:

If necessary, enter your password below:

Password:
 

 

[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.