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51S-42P-32 — Analysis and Rollout

Posted By: Taper_Mike
Date: Sunday, 11 November 2012, at 12:42 a.m.

In Response To: 51S-42P-32 — Two clunkers in a row... (Taper_Mike)

–
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 161
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 161
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b----E-D---eD---b-d-b-AA-:0:0:1:32:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 32

1.Rollout124/22 23/20eq: -0.2520
Player:
Opponent:		44.59% (G:11.12% B:0.54%)
55.41% (G:18.05% B:0.66%)		Conf.: ±0.0022 (-0.2542...-0.2498) - [100.0%]
Duration: 6 hours 32 minutes
2.Rollout123/20 13/11eq: -0.2626 (-0.0106)
Player:
Opponent:		44.29% (G:12.17% B:0.68%)
55.71% (G:18.20% B:0.91%)		Conf.: ±0.0023 (-0.2649...-0.2603) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 hours 33 minutes
3.Rollout113/8eq: -0.2667 (-0.0147)
Player:
Opponent:		44.19% (G:12.00% B:0.57%)
55.81% (G:18.07% B:0.71%)		Conf.: ±0.0022 (-0.2689...-0.2645) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 hours 09 minutes
4.Rollout224/22 13/10eq: -0.2747 (-0.0227)
Player:
Opponent:		43.88% (G:11.99% B:0.60%)
56.12% (G:18.14% B:0.88%)		Conf.: ±0.0047 (-0.2794...-0.2700) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 39 minutes
5.Rollout213/11 13/10eq: -0.2933 (-0.0413)
Player:
Opponent:		43.51% (G:12.79% B:0.68%)
56.49% (G:19.07% B:1.20%)		Conf.: ±0.0049 (-0.2982...-0.2885) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 40 minutes
6.Rollout223/18eq: -0.2962 (-0.0442)
Player:
Opponent:		43.87% (G:10.98% B:0.59%)
56.13% (G:19.30% B:0.74%)		Conf.: ±0.0047 (-0.3010...-0.2915) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 38 minutes
1 62208 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 89270958
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 15552 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 89270958
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Rollout by Taper_Mike
2012-Nov-10
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03
51S-42P-32-tm.xgp
51S-42P-32 [V S11 d15 Z23 D41 U44] "<=62**15
51S-42P-32 [V d4 S7 Z18 D31 U33] "&e

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03

What is made clear by this rollout is the importance of trying to make the 20pt. Both of the top two plays slot a checker there.

There are a couple of reasons why this makes sense. Having made his 4pt, White has a good jump in the priming game. It would be a mistake for Blue to adopt a game plan based on counterpriming. Blue would be entering a priming battle in which he is already behind. The best way for Blue to negate White’s priming advantage is to make an anchor on the 20pt. If Blue can do that, White’s two checkers on the 21pt would suddenly be behind Blue, and White’s priming chances would be slim or none.

So, if making the 20pt is the plan, the best time to start is now. As things stand, White still has only eight checkers in the zone. If Blue delays, White will surely bring down more wood.

After slotting the 20pt, the best way to play the deuce is to advance the other rear checker to the 22pt. This covers White’s stripped 8pt. Should White attack from there, any blot he leaves behind will be vulnerable to a return shot from the 22pt. Very close is unstacking a checker from the midpoint. With all the attention focused on the 20pt, however, having a loose blot on the 11pt would be a mixed blessing. It would be as much a target as it is a builder. If Blue is unwilling to slot the 20pt, his third-best option is the super safe 13/8, building a tower on the 8pt.

Mike

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