                       |
| ||||
| XGID=-CCACaC--B--------acbbbbb-:1:1:1:00:8:7:0:15:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No redouble | Redouble/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 74,21% (G:0,45% B:0,00%) | 74,48% (G:0,48% B:0,01%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 25,79% (G:0,85% B:0,02%) | 25,52% (G:1,54% B:0,05%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0,479 | +0,954 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No redouble: | +0,688 (-0,136) | ±0,004 (+0,684..+0,693) |
| Redouble/Take: | +0,825 | ±0,005 (+0,819..+0,830) |
| Redouble/Pass: | +1,000 (+0,175) | |
| Best Cube action: Redouble / Take | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 60593785 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 100,0% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100,0% | |
| Duration: 2 minutes 46 seconds | ||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2
 |
| ||||
| XGID=-CCACaC--B---a-----cbbbbb-:1:1:1:00:8:7:0:15:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No redouble | Redouble/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 76,73% (G:1,01% B:0,01%) | 77,22% (G:0,90% B:0,02%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 23,27% (G:1,01% B:0,02%) | 22,78% (G:1,27% B:0,05%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0,533 | +1,083 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No redouble: | +0,747 (-0,244) | ±0,004 (+0,743..+0,751) |
| Redouble/Take: | +0,990 | ±0,006 (+0,985..+0,996) |
| Redouble/Pass: | +1,000 (+0,010) | |
| Best Cube action: Redouble / Take | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 60593785 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 100,0% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100,0% | |
| Duration: 2 minutes 58 seconds | ||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2
 |
| ||||
| XGID=-CCACaC--B--a------cbbbbb-:1:1:1:00:8:7:0:15:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No redouble | Redouble/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 77,07% (G:1,19% B:0,01%) | 77,55% (G:1,00% B:0,01%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 22,93% (G:0,96% B:0,02%) | 22,45% (G:1,07% B:0,04%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0,543 | +1,103 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No redouble: | +0,753 (-0,247) | ±0,004 (+0,750..+0,757) |
| Redouble/Take: | +1,013 (+0,013) | ±0,006 (+1,007..+1,019) |
| Redouble/Pass: | +1,000 | |
| Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 60593785 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 100,0% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100,0% | |
| Duration: 3 minutes 31 seconds | ||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2
Nigel, I wasn't questioning your approach, I just couldn't follow it. See below:
NBM: A 1600-1930 PR diff equates to 330/1930 or 17.2% of the Trailers WC's.
You estimate a 10 PR difference as a 330 Elo point difference, right? Ok, but what does 17.2% represent? What do I do with that number?
NBM: I estimated White wins the race/hits a shot approx 25% of the time.
Very good, as shown by the rollouts.
NBM: 25% * 17.2% = 4.3%. In E-Pips terms, blue needs a mimimum of 6 pips to bear in and White needs 15 pips. Therefore, 15-6 * 0.21 + 2 * 0.5 = 2.8%. If the checker on 18 were on the 12pt, then, 20-6 * 0.21 + 2 * 0.5 = 3.9. On the midpoint: 21-6 * 0.21 + 3 * 0.5 = 4.6.
Again, I cannot follow your reasoning.
NBM: On the 12 1/2pt looks about right.
This is exactly the borderline point for a take vs pass between equally skilled players. Are you saying that you consider doubling correct for blue as soon as he has reached pass territory?