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The kind of position JOH likes to post

Posted By: Mr Majestyk
Date: Sunday, 2 December 2012, at 1:18 p.m.

In Response To: The kind of position JOH likes to post (John O'Hagan)

Thank you for the analysis, John.

Orb, its enough to know there are elements of pip & roll for both sides and in cases like these (and others), I would simply average the raw and actual EPC Kleinman estimates i.e. 67.7 - 83.5 & 60.7 - 76.5, 86%-89% = 87.5%. Is this simple adjustment specific only to Kleinman?

Metric

I custom-built my EPC ride by adding components from the Bearoff Metric Scale (BMS), EPC and Keith Count. First off, the Keith count. In blue's case, add 3 pips for the extra's on the 2pt, 1 pip for the extra on the 3pt and 1 pip for the 4pt gap = 5. Secondly, the BMS. Add 0.5 for each checker more than 2 on the ace, deuce & 3pts i.e. = 2 pips. Lastly, the EPC. Add 7 pips for an EPC of 54+14 = 68. In White's case, add 6 pips for the extra's on the acept, 1 pip for the extra on the deuce and 0 pip for 6pt gap = 7. Add 2 x 0.5 for the extra's on the acept and then add 7 pips for an EPC of 63+15 = 78.

An (actual) EPC of 68 - 78 according to the Metric is: 68/7-3 = 6. 50 + (62-6)/(6+10) * 10 = 85%. For a raw pc of 61 - 71, 61/7-3 = 5. 50 + (62-5)/(5+10) * 10 = 88%; the average being 86.5%.

This approach to the EPC has not been extensively tested ; I suspect it to be a little off now and then but any loss in accuracy is made up for in terms of speed.

Concerning the 3 outfield checkers,

The value of a pip with 80 to 90% WC's according to Tom Keith is 1.6%. The E-Pip estimate for these checkers is 0.21 x 13, 2.7 + 1.5 (0.5 for each extra outfield checker) = 4.2/1.6 = 2.6 pips.

Regards,

NBM

Messages In This Thread

• The kind of position JOH likes to post
  Timothy Chow -- Saturday, 1 December 2012, at 5:53 p.m.
  • The kind of position JOH likes to post
    christian munk-christensen -- Saturday, 1 December 2012, at 6:03 p.m.
  • The kind of position JOH likes to post
    John O'Hagan -- Saturday, 1 December 2012, at 8:16 p.m.
    • The kind of position JOH likes to post
      Mr Majestyk -- Sunday, 2 December 2012, at 1:18 p.m.
    • The kind of position JOH likes to post
      Bob Koca -- Sunday, 2 December 2012, at 4:46 p.m.
      • The kind of position JOH likes to post
        John O'Hagan -- Sunday, 2 December 2012, at 5:00 p.m.
        • The kind of position JOH likes to post
          Bob Koca -- Sunday, 2 December 2012, at 5:12 p.m.
  • The kind of position JOH likes to post
    Chuck Bower -- Sunday, 2 December 2012, at 3:28 a.m.
  • Rollout: The kind of position JOH likes to post
    Timothy Chow -- Monday, 3 December 2012, at 12:07 a.m.
    • Rollout: The kind of position JOH likes to post
      Daniel Murphy -- Monday, 3 December 2012, at 7:59 a.m.