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OLM Mo 12/03/12

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Tuesday, 4 December 2012, at 5:37 p.m.

In Response To: OLM Mo 12/03/12 (Jason Lee)

This is an interesting position and would be fun to try and figure out. However, not only is it unlikely I would even have the time to do that OtB, let alone the mental capacity, but even here I don't feel I can spend the time, either. That doesn't mean I'm simply going to lick my finger and put it in the air.

This isn't a classic Fram position but it's still worth looking at the criteria. Our position is getting worse (argues for paying now), opp's position is likely to get worse in the short term (argues for paying later), and if we hit now and survive we are likely home free (argues for paying now). Two of three is borderline (with tendency to pay later).

There is another issue and that is gammon content. (I'm NOT playing the tweener 6/3*, 7/2. I'm comparing all-in vs. no blots.) If we hit, 70% of the time opp fans and our gammon chances go way up. 30% of the time we get hit and opp's gammon chances go way up. I don't know the gammon tradeoffs at this score, but it seems likely that they favor opp some (since the difference between leading by 6 and leading by 8 has some marginal returns). BUT, opp owns the cube so by playing for gammon he's not getting his full cube leverage. That should at least offset score effect on gammons.

Having learned backgammon in the 70's I tend to overvalue pay-now. Maybe someday I'll get the balance correct. Maybe today is not the day.

6/3*, 7/2

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