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XG cube analysis -- Methodology question

Posted By: Henrik Bukkjaer
Date: Thursday, 6 December 2012, at 4:48 p.m.

In Response To: XG cube analysis -- Methodology question (Rick Janowski)

Rick, using Sconyers DB to verify the effectiveness of XG estimate for cube efficiency, seems a bit "limited".

I mean, you're only verifying bear-offs, which to begin with has the most sophisticated model for estimating X (interpolation) and that is within a known interval, where you really should see no surprises. When you get down to the two-sided bear-off DB (the very short bear-offs), that's where you'd probably get some bumps on the actual efficiency, but I suppose you get the precise number (moneygame) from the 2-sided db?

Now, I was thinking of more complicated position types, and volatile position types that either have last-roll like properties, important timing aspects, or both. Holding games I assume will often fall away from the two-thirds estimate, as well as prime vs. prime, etc.

I've never done any thorough examination on the subject I must admit, I was just surprised to find the bots using such simple approach.

Maybe I underestimate the effect of x-ply lookahead. Certainly it will handle last-roll-like situations, but I'm not sure it will handle games such as holding games, where both sides still have a couple of rolls before running out of time?

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