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Swiss vs random draw

Posted By: Tom Keith
Date: Wednesday, 13 March 2013, at 12:50 a.m.

In Response To: Swiss vs random draw (Timothy Chow)

Ahh. For the #1 player, Swiss is better! P(win)=0.0386 in a random tournament; P(win)=0.0432 in a Swiss tournament.

Player P(win)
Random Swiss
1 0.038626 0.043200
2 0.037296 0.037301
3 0.036071 0.036167
4 0.035024 0.031611
5 0.034310 0.034948
6 0.033025 0.030161
7 0.032062 0.029960
8 0.030624 0.026071
9 0.029738 0.031737
10 0.028839 0.027023
11 0.027740 0.026805
12 0.026806 0.023028
13 0.025944 0.026168
14 0.025259 0.022374
15 0.024038 0.021859
16 0.023419 0.018890
17 0.022522 0.026217
18 0.021638 0.022560
19 0.021109 0.021979
20 0.020431 0.018795
21 0.019649 0.021026
22 0.018995 0.017884
23 0.018088 0.017336
24 0.017814 0.014463
25 0.016869 0.019096
26 0.016239 0.016183
27 0.015700 0.015972
28 0.015265 0.013328
29 0.014587 0.014973
30 0.014339 0.012518
31 0.013488 0.012159
32 0.013179 0.010459
33 0.012767 0.017075
34 0.012056 0.014601
35 0.011731 0.013963
36 0.011081 0.011772
37 0.010792 0.012947
38 0.010272 0.011048
39 0.010047 0.010609
40 0.009621 0.008843
41 0.009252 0.011395
42 0.008851 0.009714
43 0.008513 0.009325
44 0.007966 0.007768
45 0.007917 0.008704
46 0.007457 0.007397
47 0.007180 0.007232
48 0.006894 0.005943
49 0.006660 0.009247
50 0.006302 0.007815
51 0.006092 0.007545
52 0.005912 0.006429
53 0.005579 0.006987
54 0.005458 0.005945
55 0.005292 0.005677
56 0.004976 0.004696
57 0.004793 0.006233
58 0.004561 0.005014
59 0.004302 0.004970
60 0.004244 0.004079
61 0.003846 0.004444
62 0.003804 0.003765
63 0.003539 0.003605
64 0.003510 0.002962

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