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Baffle Box Update

Posted By: mamabear
Date: Saturday, 16 March 2013, at 1:53 a.m.

In Response To: Baffle Box Update (Bob koca)

I meant that if neither party knows that the dice are off in that specific way, that is, that fewer doubles than expected are going to be rolled, but they are off by quite a lot, this favors the better player. The good luck that doubles represent more often than not, tends to be needed more often by the weaker player than the stronger one.

Blitzes and bearoffs are two examples of that. Straight races are another, because the good player is more likely to double at a time when the other player has something resembling a close decision, where the weak player will tend to double when it's an easy take or a dead drop. The good player's winning chance when he doubles when up, say, 10 pips in a 90 pip race is greater than usual if both sides are going to roll fewer doubles than usual, because there is less scatter from the mean that way, and it's in one side of the scatter-produced area that nasty recubes come from.

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