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U (Up), which stubbornly maintains a small edge in almost all rollouts of the second-roll position 51S-43, drops to third or fourth place in the third-roll positions of this thread. Evidentally, the builder on the 8pt spent in making the 3pt, 4pt, or 5pt must be replenished. The plays D, S, and Z, which all bring a builder (or two) down from the midpoint, surge ahead of U. When the 5pt is owned, the position is strong enough to ignore defense. All efforts can be directed to prime building, and D (Down) wins the rollout. The risk of bringing two spares down is somewhat mitigated by the fact that a roll of 54 no longer hits on the 10pt, while 22 and 44 are blocked from hitting on either the 9pt or 10pt. When the 3pt or 4pt is owned, a more balanced approach combining offense and defense is required. The splitting plays, S and Z, win the top two places in the rollouts. Between them, the choice seems to come down to the shadow cast by whichever inner board point has been made. When the 3pt is owned, it protects the 9pt from hits on a roll of 61. When the 4pt is owned, rolls of 22, 33, 44, and 62 are blocked from hitting on the 10pt. D (Down) fares poorly after making the 3pt on the first roll. That is because efforts at priming are less effective when there is a double gap to fill. Here are nacbracs and links to the XG2 rollouts. A different play comes out on top in each.
Key: D (Down) = 13/10 13/9, H (Hit) = 13/10 6/2*, S (Split) = 24/20 13/10, Mike |