Rollout results overturn our solid logical reasoning. In the original position the safe play is tied with an all-out play, while if we improve white's position, then the all-out play comes out clearly on top. Can anyone understand and explain these results?
         
 
        
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 147 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby | pip: 180
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
| | XGID=-a---BCB----eE---d-c-b--BA:0:0:1:11:0:0:1:0:10 | | Blue to play 11 | | | 1. | Rollout1 | Bar/22 24/23 | eq: -0.429 | | Player:
Opponent: | 40.44% (G:9.12% B:0.35%)
59.56% (G:18.25% B:0.98%) | Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.432...-0.426) - [55.6%]
Duration: 3 hours 15 minutes |
| | 2. | Rollout1 | Bar/23 24/23 6/5 | eq: -0.429 (0.000) | | Player:
Opponent: | 40.17% (G:9.40% B:0.35%)
59.83% (G:18.03% B:1.01%) | Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.433...-0.426) - [44.4%]
Duration: 3 hours 07 minutes |
| | 3. | Rollout2 | Bar/22 6/5 | eq: -0.438 (-0.009) | | Player:
Opponent: | 40.28% (G:9.24% B:0.35%)
59.72% (G:18.53% B:1.37%) | Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.443...-0.433) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 34 minutes |
| | | 1 31104 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 21707820
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
2 15552 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 21707820
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 143 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby | pip: 180
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
| | XGID=-a---BCB----cEb--d-c-b--BA:0:0:1:11:0:0:1:0:10 | | Blue to play 11 | | | 1. | Rollout1 | Bar/22 24/23 | eq: -0.577 | | Player:
Opponent: | 37.36% (G:8.09% B:0.34%)
62.64% (G:21.62% B:1.25%) | Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.583...-0.571) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 10 minutes |
| | 2. | Rollout1 | Bar/23 24/23 6/5 | eq: -0.595 (-0.018) | | Player:
Opponent: | 37.06% (G:8.06% B:0.34%)
62.94% (G:20.92% B:1.20%) | Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.602...-0.589) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 12 minutes |
| | 3. | Rollout2 | Bar/22 6/5 | eq: -0.602 (-0.025) | | Player:
Opponent: | 37.43% (G:8.00% B:0.35%)
62.57% (G:21.74% B:1.78%) | Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.614...-0.590) - [0.0%]
Duration: 33 minutes 33 seconds |
| | | 1 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 45592713
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
2 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 45592713
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10