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Cube action ATS?

Posted By: ah_clem
Date: Friday, 24 January 2014, at 5:40 p.m.

In Response To: Cube action ATS? (John O'Hagan)

If brown takes, he's playing for the match, so his takepoint is simply the match equity if he passes, which at 7a crawford is about 9%

Does he have 9% here? White needs to leave a shot and then brown needs to hit it. It seems like you wind up being forced to leave a shot about 505 of the time, and it's then a 30% chance to hit it for an overall hit rate something like 15%. But then brown needs to contain the hit checker and her board is going to crunch unless white puts her on the bar, so that reduces the win rate considerably. One other consideration is that the race is close and once white clears the bar point brown can leap out and make a race of it.

Add it all up and I think brown is more than 9% to win, so take. And I'm not seeing many market losers - if brown is on the bar, she holds her board. If not, she can leap out soon and race. I'd be happy to cash this one, but it can turn around too easily for me to hand her the cube.

ND/T

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