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RO: Too good, too good, too good, oops!

Posted By: David Levy
Date: Thursday, 15 May 2014, at 5:50 a.m.

In Response To: Too good, too good, too good, oops! (David Levy)

I'm really strapped for time right now, so I am posting the rollouts without comment. I will say, however, that I lack the tools to work these out OTB and there is a fair chunk of equity at stake.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 72
9 point match
pip: 44
score: 3

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-EGa----a------a----b--cgA:1:1:1:00:3:0:0:9:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 81.68% (G:4.40% B:0.00%) 81.66% (G:4.53% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 18.32% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 18.34% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities +0.678 +1.289
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.881 (-0.080)0.005 (+0.876..+0.886)
Redouble/Take:+0.9610.007 (+0.953..+0.968)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.039)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 7 minutes 29 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 68
9 point match
pip: 44
score: 3

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-EGa----a----------ab--cgA:1:1:1:00:3:0:0:9:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 83.24% (G:9.00% B:0.01%) 82.98% (G:9.17% B:0.10%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 16.76% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 17.02% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities +0.756 +1.384
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.947 (-0.053)0.005 (+0.942..+0.953)
Redouble/Take:+1.078 (+0.078)0.008 (+1.070..+1.087)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 8 minutes 33 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

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