BGonline.org Forums

RO: Too good, too good, too good, oops!

Posted By: David Levy
Date: Thursday, 15 May 2014, at 5:50 a.m.

In Response To: Too good, too good, too good, oops! (David Levy)

I'm really strapped for time right now, so I am posting the rollouts without comment. I will say, however, that I lack the tools to work these out OTB and there is a fair chunk of equity at stake.

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 72 9 point match pip: 44 score: 3 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-EGa----a------a----b--cgA:1:1:1:00:3:0:0:9:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No redouble	Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances:	81.68% (G:4.40% B:0.00%)	81.66% (G:4.53% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	18.32% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)	18.34% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.678	+1.289
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:	+0.881 (-0.080)	±0.005 (+0.876..+0.886)
Redouble/Take:	+0.961	±0.007 (+0.953..+0.968)
Redouble/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.039)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 7 minutes 29 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 68 9 point match pip: 44 score: 3 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-EGa----a----------ab--cgA:1:1:1:00:3:0:0:9:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No redouble	Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances:	83.24% (G:9.00% B:0.01%)	82.98% (G:9.17% B:0.10%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	16.76% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)	17.02% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.756	+1.384
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:	+0.947 (-0.053)	±0.005 (+0.942..+0.953)
Redouble/Take:	+1.078 (+0.078)	±0.008 (+1.070..+1.087)
Redouble/Pass:	+1.000
Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 8 minutes 33 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Messages In This Thread

• Too good, too good, too good, oops!
  David Levy -- Saturday, 10 May 2014, at 8:51 p.m.
  • Too good, too good, too good, oops!
    Timothy Chow -- Monday, 12 May 2014, at 3:07 p.m.
    • Too good, too good, too good, oops!
      Bob Koca -- Monday, 12 May 2014, at 11:26 p.m.
  • Still need help here!
    David Levy -- Tuesday, 13 May 2014, at 2:08 p.m.
  • Too good, too good, too good, oops!
    Casper Van der Tak -- Tuesday, 13 May 2014, at 2:21 p.m.
    • +1
      David Presser -- Tuesday, 13 May 2014, at 4:23 p.m.
  • RO: Too good, too good, too good, oops!
    David Levy -- Thursday, 15 May 2014, at 5:50 a.m.
    • RO: Too good, too good, too good, oops!
      Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 15 May 2014, at 2:39 p.m.