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Small tournament without Crawford - Advice needed

Posted By: Bob Koca
Date: Wednesday, 28 May 2014, at 4:48 p.m.

In Response To: Small tournament without Crawford - Advice needed (Carlo Melzi)

"Winning a single point is now almost useless. Double as soon as you are a favorite. The doubling window opens at 50% and closes at 51.5%"

The useless single point is why you are likely too good at 2a 2a if you are a favorite. There is a huge advantage to getting the gammon instead of cashing a single point and also the risk of going for the G and losing the game is extremely low. The gammon value is over 20.

At 2a - 3a I agree with your cubeless numbers but it should be pointed out that it is much easier to become TG than when using Crawford rule. On a 1 cube your opponent has almost no cube power and no gammon value while your gammon value is about 1.6

The 2a - 3a player has more cube power. I think the advantage is greater than when Crawford rule is used. This will have some implications for 3a 3a strategy.

"-3-2: Winning 1 takes you to 50%, winning 2 takes you to 51.5%, winning 4 gives you the match, losing 1 takes you to 32%, losing 2 loses the match.

Without gammons, the doubling window opens at 95.5% and closes at 97%.

With gammons, you can double much earlier as each gammon won is worth about the same as each loss: "

Thus, 2a player should treat early checkers plays as GS.

"With the cube on 2, the gammon price for both players is just below 1 (i.e. 32/36). So if the game gets doubled both players should play more aggressively."

But aggressive play going for more gammons often risks losing more gammons as well. Also the player with cube on 2 only needs to get to 68% win chance to cash arguing for increasing win chance instead of gammon chance.

For initial cube at 3a 3a without gammons the cost of losing 1 is more but cost of losing 2 is less. Also have a lower recube cash (68% instead of 75%). This means should take with significantly lower win chances. Gammon price is higher though so blitz positions may swing back some.

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