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OTB & RO

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Wednesday, 4 June 2014, at 2:43 p.m.

In Response To: 2a-11a cube action? (John O'Hagan)

I chickened out and didn't double this OTB. Certainly should have since taking is almost a double whopper for Black! The trailer's gammon-adjusted tp ATS is ~19% and he only wins 16.5% in this 15 checkers vs. 1 position.

is Player 2

score: 2
pip: 115
13 point match
pip: 85
score: 11

is Player 1
XGID=-Aa-D-DDBb--a------bccba--:0:0:1:00:11:2:0:13:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 82.93% (G:9.22% B:0.06%) 83.49% (G:9.55% B:0.06%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 17.07% (G:1.24% B:0.03%) 16.51% (G:1.34% B:0.04%)
Cubeless Equities +0.789 +1.762
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.946 (-0.054)±0.004 (+0.942..+0.950)
Double/Take:+1.187 (+0.187)±0.014 (+1.172..+1.201)
Double/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 10 minutes 15 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00, MET: Kazaross XG2

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