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OLM 20140927A The Prime Factors CONSULTATION

Posted By: Bob Koca
Date: Saturday, 27 September 2014, at 3:39 p.m.

In Response To: OLM 20140927A The Prime Factors CONSULTATION (Jason Lee)

If we stay back we gain a shot on 4 rolls (3-4 and 3-5 escape with a shot and 3-6 hits compared to 3-4 hits and 3-5 and 3-6 give clean escape). That hit happens in about 1/36 of the games and swings a close race to a dominant race lead with some contact. About 1.5% game chance swing there I think.

Suppose he steps up to the 3 point with 3-1 or 3-2 or 3-3. We are slightly better off having moved back checker up. Several point numbers balance but 1-1, 4-4, 6-6 play better.

After any other roll he stays on our ace point. Almost every roll plays about the same or as a matching roll which is about the same. 4-4 and 1-1 though play better after being straggler close.

This has got to be very close but I will guess the several small gains outweigh the immediate extra shot on 4 of his rolls after staying back.

I stick with 10/8 10/5.

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