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Blasphmey Blasphmey Desecration of XG The Truth

Posted By: Michael Depreli
Date: Monday, 12 January 2015, at 6:54 p.m.

In Response To: Blasphmey Blasphmey Desecration of XG (HOMINID)

OK time to put this one to bed.

Using XG to get an accurate rollout (in terms of absolute equity) is not really possible because after the unnatural plays of 6/2 6/5 and 7/2 depending on which settings you use it badly misplays either many (3-ply normal) or at the minimum 3 replies (33 22 and 11).

Because rolls 33 22 and 11 don't even make it to the top 32 plays at 1-ply no setting can overcome this, the result being these misplays are carried in to the rollout results the consequence being that the natural plays equities should be accurate but the unnatural plays artificially elevated.

You can see from Stick's 3-ply normal rollout how badly this skews the result.

There are two ways to get a more accurate evaluation.

A little crude but more accurate, ask XG for evaluations at say XGR++ for all the replies and take the weighted average making sure you add in the correct replies for 33 22 and 11.

Here's the result:

Play

AVG

Level

66

55

44

33*

22*

11*

65

64

63

62

61

54

53

52

51

43

42

41

32

31

21

8/4 6/5

0.325

XGR++

-0.224

-0.025

0.161

0.248

0.340

0.420

0.266

0.299

0.313

0.331

0.362

0.313

0.339

0.357

0.383

0.364

0.383

0.405

0.401

0.426

0.439

6/2 6/5

0.310

XGR++

-0.304

-0.098

0.128

0.229

0.324

0.414

0.253

0.283

0.303

0.328

0.350

0.306

0.328

0.349

0.373

0.354

0.374

0.394

0.395

0.415

0.432

Or better still roll it out with Gnubg with large enough search intervals to catch all the best replies. I used 3-ply (XG equivalent 4-ply) as I felt it had a good understanding of the position.

gnubg106

' '2X2X3X2X2X1X ' '1X2O

1O2O1O1O1O3O2O2O2X ' ' '
Mike91
Position ID: bLdFMACtug0GAA Match ID: QQkGAAAAAAAA

# Ply Move Equity
1 R 8/4 6/5 +0.336
0.7080.0100.001-0.2920.0060.000 +0.421 +0.336
0.0010.0020.001-0.0010.0010.000 0.002 0.003
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
268 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 764572044 and quasi-random dice
Play: 3-ply cubeful prune [grandmaster]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 50 more moves within equity 0.2
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
keep the first 0 2-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.1
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
2 R 7/3 6/5 +0.328 ( -0.008)
0.7070.0050.000-0.2930.0050.000 +0.414 +0.328
0.0010.0010.000-0.0010.0010.000 0.003 0.003
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
263 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 764572044 and quasi-random dice
Play: 3-ply cubeful prune [grandmaster]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 50 more moves within equity 0.2
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
keep the first 0 2-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.1
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
3 R 8/3 +0.324 ( -0.013)
0.7050.0060.000-0.2950.0050.000 +0.411 +0.324
0.0010.0020.001-0.0010.0010.000 0.003 0.003
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
263 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 764572044 and quasi-random dice
Play: 3-ply cubeful prune [grandmaster]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 50 more moves within equity 0.2
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
keep the first 0 2-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.1
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
4 R 7/2 +0.310 ( -0.026)
0.7000.0040.000-0.3000.0060.000 +0.396 +0.310
0.0020.0010.000-0.0020.0010.000 0.004 0.004
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
268 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 764572044 and quasi-random dice
Play: 3-ply cubeful prune [grandmaster]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 50 more moves within equity 0.2
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
keep the first 0 2-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.1
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
5 R 6/5 6/2 +0.310 ( -0.026)
0.6990.0060.000-0.3010.0070.000 +0.398 +0.310
0.0020.0010.000-0.0020.0010.000 0.003 0.004
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
261 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 764572044 and quasi-random dice
Play: 3-ply cubeful prune [grandmaster]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 50 more moves within equity 0.2
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
keep the first 0 2-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.1
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
6 R 6/1 +0.309 ( -0.027)
0.6990.0040.000-0.3010.0040.000 +0.398 +0.309
0.0010.0010.000-0.0010.0010.000 0.003 0.003
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
260 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 764572044 and quasi-random dice
Play: 3-ply cubeful prune [grandmaster]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 50 more moves within equity 0.2
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
keep the first 0 2-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.1
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

So if a rollout looks suspect, it's worth delving a little deeper.

Michael

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