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A conundrum bearoff position

Posted By: Bob Koca
Date: Monday, 12 January 2015, at 6:55 p.m.

In Response To: A conundrum bearoff position (Phil Simborg)

With this much time left in the bearoff and enough high checkers I think even-odd considerations are very much overrated.

For example even with 2 2 3 3 2 0 position with no contact resulting from playing 6/4 6/3 from the flat position there is more than 39% chance of needing 7 or more rolls.

Blue is a big favorite for both positions. 85.7% in the original position and 91.6% in the modified position. One thing that is bad about 3/1 3/0 is that it adds a checker to the ace point which gives wastage and slows down bearoff. But with a huge race lead that is not as important since it reduces variance at the same time. For losing race you probably would need to roll terribly and if you get a lot of aces the wastage disappears.

Another relevant position here is the original but with white having a total of 8 chekers off. After either play blue is a dog and there 6/4 6/3 is correct.

Messages In This Thread

• A conundrum bearoff position
  Phil Simborg -- Monday, 12 January 2015, at 1:53 p.m.
  • A conundrum bearoff position
    Casper Van der Tak -- Monday, 12 January 2015, at 2:13 p.m.
  • A conundrum bearoff position
    Daniel Murphy -- Monday, 12 January 2015, at 4:52 p.m.
  • A conundrum bearoff position
    Jeroen -- Monday, 12 January 2015, at 5:45 p.m.
  • A conundrum bearoff position
    Bob Koca -- Monday, 12 January 2015, at 6:55 p.m.
    • The Tipping Point
      Taper_Mike -- Monday, 12 January 2015, at 7:53 p.m.
  • A conundrum bearoff position
    David Rockwell -- Tuesday, 13 January 2015, at 3:10 a.m.
  • Good responses, but one question not answered
    Phil Simborg -- Tuesday, 13 January 2015, at 8:00 a.m.
    • Good responses, but one question not answered
      David Rockwell -- Tuesday, 13 January 2015, at 3:10 p.m.
  • A conundrum bearoff position
    Keene -- Tuesday, 13 January 2015, at 3:36 p.m.