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PR difference affecting the gameplay

Posted By: Karol Szczerek
Date: Saturday, 14 March 2015, at 12:25 a.m.

In Response To: PR difference affecting the gameplay (Karol Szczerek)

Thanks for all the answers.

I agree that the data sample needed to get some reliable answers for human vs. human problem should be quite big - probably something in range of 10^6 - 10^7 analyzed matches. Therefore I'll focus on the bot calculations for now, since such sample is probably out of reach.

quote/Stick: "In XG it's called the Elo Calculator which can be found under the Windows tab or via the shortcut Ctrl + Alt + X. 1 PR = 33 elo"

Acc. to this feature of XG, the 3 PR difference gives ca. 47-53 DMP win chances, and 5 PR gives ca. 45-55. It's obvious that a worse player should prioritize all ways to shorten the number of games to be played. He's an underdog in every game, so the more he plays, the less his MWC are, because of probabilities multiplication. So the doubling and gammons values goes up for him. By how much? - that's something I'm exploring.

I've made a simple program, which calculates cubeless MWC for two players with different ratings. For players with 5PR difference I've assumed values: 45/11,7 (win%/gammon%) vs. 55/14,3.

Result for 20pt. match is 29,7% MWC for worse player. Cutting this in half - to 10pts. - gives 35,4% MWC. By cutting in half I mean simulating 2-pt. win, i.e. gammon or doubled (20-pt match / 2-pt win = 10-pt match).

This gain in value is confirmed by rearranging the initial parameters (I surrender some win% for some gammon%). It turns out that the worse player can trade 1% win for 1,75% gammons, instead of typical 2% gammons for even players. The same idea probably applies to doubles - worse player can double more aggresively.

This are only some stupidly simplified calculations, but gives an idea what to expect.

Is there a way to give any bot a 2-subject MET? For worse and better player? I can load only one to XG, which is then used for both players (giving some funny results).

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