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Converting EPC into winning chances

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Sunday, 15 March 2015, at 12:10 a.m.

In Response To: Bear off cube action (Score related) (Mochy)

This method seems to work fairly well. 1) Once the EPC's are given, subtract 7 from each. 2) Use Kleinman's D squared/S for these pip counts. This tells you what kind of a favorite the side on roll would be in a pips v pips race with these pip counts. 3) Then you need to adjust for the fact that it's a roll v pip or pip v roll position. I do this by adding 1/2 pip *D.

i.e. In this position, the EPC's I came up with were 37.5 to 44.1 which become 30.5 to 37.1. D squared/S is 1.77 which gives the side on roll about 82.5% chances in a pip v pip race. D is 10.6 so add 5.3% which gives 87.8%.

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