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Lamb belly soup RO

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Tuesday, 2 June 2015, at 2:58 p.m.

In Response To: Lamb belly soup RO (Timothy Chow)

I finally did a rollout of this position with both double and no double. The report below doesn't say so explicitly, but the verdict was that White should double after 22/16 9/4 and after 22/11, but not after any of the top four plays. The biggest difference compared to the previous 3-ply/XGR rollout that I posted is that White is no longer doubling after 13/7 9/4. This fact pushes the top six plays much closer together.

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 122 Unlimited Game pip: 149 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=---B-BCA-B--cB---dce-BA---:0:0:1:56:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 56

1.	Rollout1	13/7 9/4	eq: -0.788
	Player: Opponent: 28.35% (G:3.43% B:0.07%) 71.65% (G:6.69% B:0.14%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.793...-0.783) - [96.2%] Duration: 5 hours 26 minutes
2.	Rollout1	9/4 9/3	eq: -0.795 (-0.006)
	Player: Opponent: 27.95% (G:2.93% B:0.06%) 72.05% (G:5.81% B:0.15%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.800...-0.790) - [3.6%] Duration: 5 hours 04 minutes
3.	Rollout1	13/8 13/7	eq: -0.798 (-0.010)
	Player: Opponent: 27.76% (G:2.95% B:0.06%) 72.24% (G:5.30% B:0.12%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.803...-0.793) - [0.2%] Duration: 5 hours 06 minutes
4.	Rollout1	9/4 7/1	eq: -0.805 (-0.017)
	Player: Opponent: 27.41% (G:2.78% B:0.05%) 72.59% (G:5.73% B:0.13%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.810...-0.800) - [0.0%] Duration: 4 hours 41 minutes
5.	Rollout1	22/16 9/4	eq: -0.809 (-0.021)
	Player: Opponent: 26.72% (G:1.78% B:0.04%) 73.28% (G:3.44% B:0.07%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.815...-0.804) - [0.0%] Duration: 5 hours 00 minute
6.	Rollout1	22/11	eq: -0.810 (-0.022)
	Player: Opponent: 26.24% (G:1.11% B:0.03%) 73.76% (G:1.82% B:0.05%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.815...-0.805) - [0.0%] Duration: 4 hours 17 minutes
7.	Rollout2	9/3 7/2	eq: -0.815 (-0.027)
	Player: Opponent: 27.21% (G:2.73% B:0.06%) 72.79% (G:5.73% B:0.15%) Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.825...-0.805) - [0.0%] Duration: 14 minutes 17 seconds
8.	Rollout2	22/16 7/2	eq: -0.820 (-0.032)
	Player: Opponent: 26.52% (G:1.78% B:0.05%) 73.48% (G:3.80% B:0.07%) Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.831...-0.809) - [0.0%] Duration: 10 minutes 00 second
9.	Rollout2	13/2	eq: -0.824 (-0.036)
	Player: Opponent: 27.49% (G:3.49% B:0.07%) 72.51% (G:7.49% B:0.20%) Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.834...-0.814) - [0.0%] Duration: 13 minutes 59 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Rolled for both No double and Double Dice Seed: 271828 First 3 moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+ Remaining moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 271828 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release

Messages In This Thread

• Boring positions: beaking up is hard to do
  svilo -- Sunday, 19 April 2015, at 10:04 a.m.
  • Boring positions: beaking up is hard to do
    Fatboy -- Sunday, 19 April 2015, at 5:17 p.m.
  • Boring positions: beaking up is hard to do
    Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 19 April 2015, at 5:33 p.m.
    • Boring positions: beaking up is hard to do
      Fatboy -- Monday, 20 April 2015, at 6:16 a.m.
    • Boring positions: beaking up is hard to do
      Casper Van der Tak -- Monday, 20 April 2015, at 8:05 a.m.
  • Boring positions: beaking up is hard to do
    Taper_Mike -- Monday, 20 April 2015, at 3:10 a.m.
  • Boring positions: beaking up is hard to do
    Chuck Bower -- Monday, 20 April 2015, at 4:52 p.m.
    • Boring positions: beaking up is hard to do
      Taper_Mike -- Monday, 20 April 2015, at 6:45 p.m.
  • Lamb belly soup RO
    svilo -- Tuesday, 21 April 2015, at 1:02 p.m.
    • Lamb belly soup RO
      Casper Van der Tak -- Tuesday, 21 April 2015, at 2:37 p.m.
      • Lamb belly soup RO
        Chuck Bower -- Tuesday, 21 April 2015, at 3:34 p.m.
    • Lamb belly soup RO
      Neil Robins -- Saturday, 25 April 2015, at 12:35 p.m.
      • Lamb belly soup RO
        Timothy Chow -- Saturday, 25 April 2015, at 6:43 p.m.
        • Lamb belly soup RO
          Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 2 June 2015, at 2:58 p.m.