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BGonline.org Forums
OLM 20150813A The Dilly Builders
Posted By: Wolfgang In Response To: OLM 20150813A The Dilly Builders (scotty)
Date: Friday, 14 August 2015, at 4:47 p.m.
I think our rolls which make the 5-point are very good rolls yet aren't market losers. If the Prime Factors managed to enter from the bar, they would still have a take (at least in most cases). Whenever they roll either 1's or 2's, they would be back in the game (20/36 ~ 56%).
For instance: We roll 31, and make the 5-point. They roll 52, and play 24/22 13/8. In that position the Prime Factors would have a big take if we doubled there (but I'm not sure if we should actually double in that case). If they rolled 62 instead of 52, they would even have a great comeback (bar/17*), and in that position we shouldn't double at all.
For this reason, the nine rolls which make the 5-point might possibly be market losers under certain conditions, yet they aren't market losers per se. Optimistically, we could count them as 4 market losers because: 9 x 0,44 ~ 4. That is, we make the 5-point (9 rolls) AND they don't manage to enter (44%).
As far as I understand O'Hagan's Law, it is perfectly suited for initial doubles in unlimited games (and normal scores): Market losers minus anti-jokers are supposed to be about 9 to justify an initial double. Here, 7away-5away indicates an asymmetric status. We are supposed to double noticeably earlier (compared to unlimited games) whenever we are convinced to have a successful game where gammons might play a decisive role. E.g., prime, blitz, playing against a low anchor and so on. Therefore, at 7away-5away we probably need less than 9 market losers. But how many in general, I don't know. I think it also depends on the quality of the market losers, that is: To what quantitative extent do we lose our market if we don't double?
In the given position, an optimistic estimation of market losers might look like:
- 9 rolls making the 5-point: 4 market losers (see above)
- 4 strong hitting rolls (43, 61): 4 x 0,25 ~ 1 market loser (They will fan in 25%: Double/Pass, I guess)
- I wouldn't count the weak hitting numbers (eg. 52 or 54) at all, since they doesn't look like convincing candidates for market losers: 0 market loser
- 66 (13/1*(2) is a market loser in itself): 1 market loser
- 33 is an extremly good roll as well: let's count it as 0.75 market loser
All in all, according to this estimation (which might be terribly wrong) we have 6.75 market losers. 6.75 is a flattering ballpark figure in our favour, since I've probably overrated the amount of market losers. Moreover, the anti-jokers are still to be substracted from this number. How many anti-jokers (in terms of O'Hagan's Law) do we have? I have to re-study this definition, therefore, I am not sure. But 14, 24, 26, 55, 56 are bad numbers which relativise the amount of market losers significantly.
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