When you hardly win at all it's common for plays to be 'closer than you would have thought'. I figured it would be close because it's essential to get that 2nd checker if our sole goal is to win. The issue here is it kills a second checker deep in our home board. Take this for example:
       
 
       
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 13 | | 1 point match | pip: 90
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-BBBBBC------a---A------aA:0:0:1:32:0:0:0:1:10 |
| Blue to play 32 |
| 1. | XG Roller++ | Bar/22 3/1 | eq: -0.780 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 11.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
89.00% (G:67.23% B:30.39%) | |
|
| 2. | XG Roller++ | Bar/22 6/4 | eq: -0.789 (-0.009) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 10.56% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
89.44% (G:65.40% B:30.22%) | |
|
| 3. | XG Roller++ | Bar/23 4/1 | eq: -0.799 (-0.019) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 10.05% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
89.95% (G:67.67% B:37.20%) | |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.206.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2
Stick