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Take or pass? - RO & VARIANTS

Posted By: Karol Szczerek
Date: Tuesday, 20 October 2015, at 8:50 p.m.

In Response To: Take or pass? (Karol Szczerek)

Opp is spreading stuff in the oufield and will be quick to improve his prime. We have OK board, that can get better in few rolls, but after another few will collapse. That means we desperately want to get to the edge or -1 from it, and try to jump over asap.

What I ignored here is the awkwardness of the 23pt stack. It leaves us with only 1s and 2s to get to the jumping line.

Below is the rollout of the original position.

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 138 13 point match pip: 151 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=--B-BbCCaB--c----bbbb-aC--:0:0:-1:00:0:0:0:13:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	76,34% (G:18,65% B:0,77%)	76,69% (G:19,02% B:0,83%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	23,66% (G:6,21% B:0,19%)	23,31% (G:6,52% B:0,19%)
Cubeless Equities	+0,661	+1,358
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0,936 (-0,064)	±0,011 (+0,924..+0,947)
Double/Take:	+1,204 (+0,204)	±0,018 (+1,185..+1,222)
Double/Pass:	+1,000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:		100,0%
Take Decision confidence:		100,0%
Duration: 21 minutes 34 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

Variant A White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 139 13 point match pip: 151 score: 0 Blue is Player 1 XGID=--B-BbCCaB--c----bbbb-aBA-:0:0:-1:00:0:0:0:13:10 Blue on roll, cube action? Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take Player Winning Chances: 72,24% (G:18,55% B:0,84%) 72,22% (G:19,09% B:0,95%) Opponent Winning Chances: 27,76% (G:7,87% B:0,27%) 27,78% (G:7,96% B:0,29%) Cubeless Equities +0,560 +1,148 Cubeful Equities No double: +0,859 (-0,113) ±0,009 (+0,849..+0,868) Double/Take: +0,971 ±0,013 (+0,958..+0,984) Double/Pass: +1,000 (+0,029) Best Cube action: Double / Take Rollout details 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller Double Decision confidence: 100,0% Take Decision confidence: 100,0% Duration: 42 minutes 01 second eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2 We have 1s, 2s & 3s to come near the edge of the prime, which changes things dramatically. The decision is borderline, but the point is to show the awkwardness of the stacked back men in original position.

Variant B White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 140 13 point match pip: 151 score: 0 Blue is Player 1 XGID=--B-BbCCaB--c----bbbb-aAB-:0:0:-1:00:0:0:0:13:10 Blue on roll, cube action? Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take Player Winning Chances: 72,06% (G:19,97% B:1,11%) 72,32% (G:20,56% B:1,19%) Opponent Winning Chances: 27,94% (G:7,82% B:0,23%) 27,68% (G:7,87% B:0,23%) Cubeless Equities +0,575 +1,192 Cubeful Equities No double: +0,866 (-0,134) ±0,007 (+0,859..+0,872) Double/Take: +1,009 (+0,009) ±0,009 (+1,000..+1,019) Double/Pass: +1,000 Best Cube action: Double / Pass Rollout details 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller Double Decision confidence: 100,0% Take Decision confidence: 97,4% Duration: 1 hour 33 minutes eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2 Created from Variant A by moving checker from 23 to 24pt. Still we have 3 numbers to come to the jumping line. The ace-point anchor looses more gammons than deuce-point one though. More enough to push the value down into the borderline pass zone.

Variant C White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 146 13 point match pip: 151 score: 0 Blue is Player 1 XGID=--B-BbCCa---cB---bbbb-aC--:0:0:-1:00:0:0:0:13:10 Blue on roll, cube action? Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take Player Winning Chances: 74,55% (G:19,82% B:0,90%) 74,92% (G:20,16% B:0,99%) Opponent Winning Chances: 25,45% (G:6,45% B:0,16%) 25,08% (G:6,90% B:0,18%) Cubeless Equities +0,636 +1,306 Cubeful Equities No double: +0,918 (-0,082) ±0,013 (+0,905..+0,930) Double/Take: +1,139 (+0,139) ±0,018 (+1,121..+1,156) Double/Pass: +1,000 Best Cube action: Double / Pass Rollout details 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller Double Decision confidence: 100,0% Take Decision confidence: 100,0% Duration: 21 minutes 54 seconds eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2 How awkward the stack is? Moving the 9pt to 13pt, giving us more timing and outfield coverage doesn't change much. Still a big pass.

Variant D White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 161 13 point match pip: 151 score: 0 Blue is Player 1 XGID=---BBbBBa---cD---bbbb-aC--:0:0:-1:00:0:0:0:13:10 Blue on roll, cube action? Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take Player Winning Chances: 71,42% (G:18,86% B:0,87%) 71,56% (G:19,00% B:1,00%) Opponent Winning Chances: 28,58% (G:6,58% B:0,24%) 28,44% (G:6,99% B:0,29%) Cubeless Equities +0,561 +1,141 Cubeful Equities No double: +0,831 (-0,108) ±0,009 (+0,822..+0,839) Double/Take: +0,939 ±0,014 (+0,925..+0,953) Double/Pass: +1,000 (+0,061) Best Cube action: Double / Take Rollout details 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller Double Decision confidence: 100,0% Take Decision confidence: 100,0% Duration: 45 minutes 47 seconds eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2 To make it a take, we have to do significant changes. Closing the 3pt hole in our board and moving spares back to our midpoint gives us enough time for the stack to be unloaded.

Messages In This Thread

• Take or pass?
  Karol Szczerek -- Saturday, 17 October 2015, at 9:53 a.m.
  • Take or pass?
    scotty -- Saturday, 17 October 2015, at 11:44 a.m.
  • Take or pass?
    Mick Z -- Saturday, 17 October 2015, at 1:12 p.m.
  • Take or pass?
    Alex Schofield -- Saturday, 17 October 2015, at 3:31 p.m.
    • Take or pass?
      neilkaz -- Saturday, 17 October 2015, at 3:54 p.m.
  • Take or pass?
    MandM1951 -- Saturday, 17 October 2015, at 4:00 p.m.
  • Take or pass?
    garyo -- Sunday, 18 October 2015, at 1:45 p.m.
  • Take or pass? - RO & VARIANTS
    Karol Szczerek -- Tuesday, 20 October 2015, at 8:50 p.m.
    • Variant (better off on the bar)
      Nack Ballard -- Wednesday, 21 October 2015, at 1:43 a.m.