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My 55 reply is a whopper

Posted By: Karol Szczerek
Date: Monday, 4 January 2016, at 4:17 p.m.

In Response To: My 55 reply is a whopper (Timothy Chow)

The opp's hit on our 8pt. after the blitzing play doesn't trim our equity, as we are still in the market. Loosing the market does.

After the usual blitzing play we loose the market after opp's:
all 9 dances - by 1.17 (difference between opp's take and pass)
64 - by .47
65 - by .4
for a total of 13 rolls with average market loss of
.94 per market loser or .34 per roll

After the best 13/8(2) 6/1*(2):
all 4 dances - by .6
62 - by .07
for a total of 6 rolls with average market loss of
.42 per market loser or .07 per roll

I wouldn't spot it OTB, but once You analyze it, it seems obvious. Great lesson!

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