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My 55 reply is a whopper

Posted By: Karol Szczerek
Date: Tuesday, 5 January 2016, at 6:12 a.m.

In Response To: My 55 reply is a whopper (Timothy Chow)

After either play we have a range of possible responses. Those, after which we have lost our market are trimmed to +1.0 instead of being much more than that.

Blitzing play has a wider spread. Let's say, from 0.0 to +2.2 AtS, which adds up to a better cubeless average than the DMP 13/8(2) 6/1*(2) play. But 13 rolls from this range are trimmed to +1.0 because of market loss AtS. So when You add up the 0.0 - 2.2 range again, but trim those market loosing sequences to 1.0, You will get an inferior sum comparing to the DMP play, which doesn't have such wide spread, and only 4 market loosers are trimmed significantly there.

That's why I said, that the hit on 8pt. doesn't trim our equity - it's still in the untrimmed range of possible outcomes.

At other scores the equity loss after blitz-dance sequence is much smaller (or even none, sorry I do not have an XG on me and don't recall, but I think the decision is borderline take or pass - a close one anyway). Therefore adding up the range of outcome equities of blitzing play and the DMP play goes in favor of the former.

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