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OLM 20160117A The Prime Factors Consultation

Posted By: Taper_Mike
Date: Monday, 18 January 2016, at 10:44 p.m.

In Response To: OLM 20160117A The Prime Factors Consultation (mitokid)

I want to comment here to explain why I think leaving a blot behind on the 21pt is a mistake.

Leaving a blot on the 21pt entails significant risk. After we play 21/18(2) 13/7, the Dillies will hit when they roll 11, 22, 42, 44, and 66. The only one that offers a return shot is 66. Note, however, that the Dillies will be favored when they roll 66 no matter how we play this 33. For the marginal advantage we gain on 66 by making your move, we surrender significant equity on rolls of 11, 22, 42, and 44. We benefit 1 time in 36, while losing 5 times in 36.

If the Dilly Builders were going to leave a blot in their outer board on their turn, then leaving a spare back on the 21pt would increase our chances of hitting. But that is moot. The Dillies will not be volunteering any blots next turn.

Mike

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