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OLM 20160303A The Prime Factors

Posted By: Havard Raddum
Date: Thursday, 3 March 2016, at 8:47 p.m.

In Response To: OLM 20160303A The Prime Factors (Jason Lee)

Normally I'd say this is a big ND, but the score makes our redouble point quite low I think. Calculating doubling points is not my strongest suit, so correct me if I'm wrong:

risk is difference between 5-away 1-away and lost match = 18% (I think) gain is difference between 8-8 and 10-8 crawford. 10-8 crawford looks like 75% (they need to win twice, and winning a gammon doesn't help them). So gain is 25%.

r/(r+g) then gives a doubling point of 42%. Do we have that? We have a 4.5 point board vs a 2-point board, race is about even. We need to escape two back men over a five prime, they are on bar. To me it looks rather even, so I'll go out on a limb here.

Redouble.

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