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Have you noticed this before?

Posted By: Chris Yep
Date: Tuesday, 8 March 2016, at 4:55 a.m.

In Response To: Have you noticed this before? (Timothy Chow)

Alireza: That certain approximation I used is: assuming Your match equity equals O/(P+O), which is pretty close in scores less than 6-a,6-a. (P: player score-away. O: opponent score-away)

Timothy: Obviously the formula works when P = O and when either P or O is much larger than the other. It's interesting that it seems to work well for many scores in between.

When P and O are far apart I think the O/(P+O) approximation is actually way off.

Example: 25-away/3-away; O/(P+O) = 10.7%; Kazaross XG2 MET gives 0.47%.

As an extreme example, consider 9000-away/1000-away. The actual match equity of 9000-away/1000-away should be extremely close to zero (even much smaller than 0.01%), yet the O/(P+O) approximation gives a 10% value.

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