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Who can explain this position pair (RO info)

Posted By: Bob Koca
Date: Wednesday, 13 July 2016, at 5:11 p.m.

In Response To: If you blunder here you may be in good company (neilkaz)

At 4a 7a these two positions show extremely close results with regards to games won and gammons won by both sides. However one is a correct cube and in the the other it is a big blunder. How can the ND equity being only .01 higher and the cubeless equity after DT being .05 higher give a DT equity which is .16 higher?





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 158
7 point match
pip: 147
score: 3

Blue is Player 1
XGID=aB-B--C-A--aeE---c-e----B-:0:0:1:00:3:0:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 63.565% (G:32.825% B:0.443%) 63.618% (G:33.205% B:0.483%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 36.435% (G:7.182% B:0.349%) 36.382% (G:7.153% B:0.347%)
Cubeless Equities +0.6300 +1.4052
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.6924 (-0.0287)
Double/Take:+0.7211
Double/Pass:+1.0000 (+0.2789)
Best Cube action: Double / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 180
7 point match
pip: 124
score: 3

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aaBbBDB-b--aD---bAbbb----:0:0:1:00:3:0:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 62.570% (G:33.142% B:1.522%) 62.056% (G:33.560% B:1.524%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 37.430% (G:6.797% B:0.283%) 37.944% (G:7.005% B:0.252%)
Cubeless Equities +0.6312 +1.3530
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.6823
Double/Take:+0.5569 (-0.1254)
Double/Pass:+1.0000 (+0.3177)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 22.1%

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

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