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Size of the errors

Posted By: Florin Popa
Date: Tuesday, 20 September 2016, at 9:56 a.m.

In Response To: Backgammon in the Wind - Erratum (Casper Van der Tak)

The true error is that you gamble at 2,77% the last point of the match, yours against opponent's one. Here EMG doesn't work because there are very small chances to win. Doubling when you are completely lost is a huge conceptual mistake but here the maximum you can throw away is 0,727% (a bit less if you have a winning 66). The same happens when you play very bad when almost lost. .

The model of errors implemented in XG fails in these kind of situations, I would call them the tails of the model, luckly not often happen. If you miss doubles a few times you can be charged more than 1.00 in one game but here you can really (5+ checkers) throw away 1p and get charged less than 0.02, a huge contrariety in my opinion.

Messages In This Thread

• Backgammon in the Wind - Erratum
  Chris Bray -- Monday, 19 September 2016, at 8:52 a.m.
  • Backgammon in the Wind - Erratum
    Casper Van der Tak -- Monday, 19 September 2016, at 11:12 a.m.
    • Backgammon in the Wind - Erratum
      Chris Bray -- Monday, 19 September 2016, at 5:37 p.m.
      • Equity of that situation
        Bob Koca -- Monday, 19 September 2016, at 6:17 p.m.
      • Backgammon in the Wind - Erratum
        Casper Van der Tak -- Monday, 19 September 2016, at 6:46 p.m.
      • Backgammon in the Wind - Erratum
        Florin Popa -- Monday, 19 September 2016, at 10:56 p.m.
        • Backgammon in the Wind - Erratum
          Casper Van der Tak -- Tuesday, 20 September 2016, at 7:42 a.m.
          • Size of the errors
            Florin Popa -- Tuesday, 20 September 2016, at 9:56 a.m.
            • Size of the errors
              Casper Van der Tak -- Tuesday, 20 September 2016, at 10:08 a.m.
            • Size of the errors
              Joe Russell -- Tuesday, 20 September 2016, at 10:42 a.m.
              • Size of the errors
                Florin Popa -- Tuesday, 20 September 2016, at 12:30 p.m.
              • Effective error rate
                Bob Koca -- Tuesday, 20 September 2016, at 1:18 p.m.
              • Effective errors and marginal doubles
                Florin Popa -- Friday, 23 September 2016, at 2:08 p.m.
                • Effective errors and marginal doubles
                  Bob Koca -- Friday, 23 September 2016, at 5:29 p.m.
                  • Effective errors and marginal doubles
                    Florin Popa -- Sunday, 25 September 2016, at 1:41 a.m.
  • Backgammon in the Wind - Erratum
    neilkaz -- Monday, 19 September 2016, at 6:49 p.m.
    • Rollout - 4 ply huge
      KenB -- Thursday, 22 September 2016, at 4:00 a.m.