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RO and close varient

Posted By: neilkaz
Date: Thursday, 30 March 2017, at 11:20 p.m.

In Response To: Another boring AtS holding game cube decision (neilkaz)

OTB I was unsure whether this was technically a pass. I wanted my opp to drop but expected a take but doubled anyhow. I soon lost my market with 44. We see a good ref pos for 75% CPW.





White is Player 2

score: 4
pip: 124
7 point match
pip: 109
score: 5

Blue is Player 1
XGID=----BbECC---bB--a--eabb---:0:0:1:00:5:4:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 75.037% (G:1.816% B:0.032%) 74.998% (G:2.134% B:0.033%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 24.963% (G:0.675% B:0.018%) 25.002% (G:0.495% B:0.009%)
Cubeless Equities +0.5268 +1.6244
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.8655 (-0.1283)±0.0030 (+0.8624..+0.8685)
Double/Take:+0.9937±0.0043 (+0.9894..+0.9981)
Double/Pass:+1.0000 (+0.0063)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 46789356
Moves and cube decisions: 4-ply
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:99.8%
Duration: 46 minutes 45 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Improving White by making his 5 pt and smoothing him out doesn't help him as much as I'd expected.





White is Player 2

score: 4
pip: 124
7 point match
pip: 109
score: 5

Blue is Player 1
XGID=----BbECC---bB--a-acbbb---:0:0:1:00:5:4:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 74.685% (G:1.578% B:0.020%) 74.815% (G:2.237% B:0.032%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 25.315% (G:0.577% B:0.018%) 25.185% (G:0.526% B:0.020%)
Cubeless Equities +0.5164 +1.6137
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.8490 (-0.1302)±0.0031 (+0.8459..+0.8521)
Double/Take:+0.9792±0.0042 (+0.9749..+0.9834)
Double/Pass:+1.0000 (+0.0208)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 67845327
Moves and cube decisions: 4-ply
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 48 minutes 35 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

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