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Reference Cusps

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Monday, 22 May 2017, at 4:55 a.m.

In Response To: EGB Cube - XGR++ (Stick)





White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 156
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 141
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=-aa---EBC---dC---a-bbb-bAA:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10

51S-51S-31P-61P-44A-F-C


Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 70.60% (G:32.57% B:1.20%) 70.26% (G:34.63% B:1.15%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 29.40% (G:5.75% B:0.24%) 29.74% (G:6.21% B:0.30%)
Cubeless Equities +0.690 +1.396
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.886 (-0.114)
Double/Take:+1.183 (+0.183)
Double/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass


In Stick's original position, shown above, White has a big pass (1.183, according to XGR++ evaluation).

I offer two reference cusps below (side-by-side, if your window is wide), along with opening sequences that reach them (see captions).

In the first position, White's 7pt has been changed to her 5pt, which gives her a borderline take/pass.

In the second position, White also owns her 3pt (adjustment of 6/3(2)), which reduces the strength of Blue's cube to a borderline no-double/double.

Nack





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 152
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 141
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=aaB-BBB-A---cD---c-eb--AA-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10

Borderline T/P
41S-51S-43P-31P-52Z-44A-F-C


Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 68.00% (G:31.83% B:1.22%) 68.03% (G:34.16% B:1.24%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 32.00% (G:8.08% B:0.38%) 31.97% (G:8.53% B:0.42%)
Cubeless Equities +0.606 +1.250
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.806 (-0.194)±0.004 (+0.801..+0.810)
Double/Take:+1.002 (+0.002)±0.006 (+0.996..+1.009)
Double/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 98091720
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:76.8%
Duration: 34 minutes 28 seconds
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 146
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 141
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=aaB-BBB-A---cD---c-cb-bAA-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10

Borderline N/D
51S-51S-33A-31P-52Z-44A-F-C


Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 62.54% (G:29.42% B:1.07%) 62.86% (G:30.38% B:1.06%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 37.46% (G:11.29% B:0.60%) 37.14% (G:11.60% B:0.64%)
Cubeless Equities +0.437 +0.898
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.624±0.007 (+0.617..+0.632)
Double/Take:+0.621 (-0.003)±0.010 (+0.611..+0.631)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.376)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 0.8%
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:69.7%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 16 minutes 24 seconds

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