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Cube action - Cash or Cheque? - ROLLOUT and Theory Questions
Posted By: scotty In Response To: Cube action - Cash or Cheque? - ROLLOUT and Theory Questions (sebalotek)
Date: Wednesday, 24 May 2017, at 6:22 p.m.
i can't explain all the numbers in the windows from GNU, but the MET numbers we are concerned with is not 3a7a. We want to know what choices white has, so we need to look at what his MWC are if she drops. If white drops, the score will be 1a7a Crawford, which gives white a theoretical MWC of 9.3%. IF white takes, and redoubles, the game is for the match, and hence white needs 9.3% wins to take the cube. That is the top of your market window for black (90.7). In other words, when black has 90.7 GWC, then white is ambivalent between taking and dropping the cube.
Kit Woolsey wrote an article online called the 5 Point Match. It explains the MET very well.
http://www.bkgm.com/articles/GOL/Aug99/fivept.htm
If you look at it, you will see that you only need to learn 10 scores to be able to reproduce the entire table ( up to 5a5a). After that, learn the top two rows as high as you need to for the matches you play, and figure out how to use Neil's Number for the rest of it.
I miss the School of Fish too, but maybe we can get online for a session or two and we can work through the basics of the MET. If there are any other intermediates out there, who would like to join in, drop me a private email, and I will coordinate a meeting at a time convenient for the largest number of people. The MET is not hard. It is based on some fairly simple ideas. Playing backgammon without understanding the ideas behind the MET is a recipe for .... a huge hamburger!
Sebalotek"So does this mean I have to be *above* my maximum 'Cash Point' to offer the cube? That doesn't sound very intuitive to me. I guess I am misunderstanding the terminology - bah humbug! "
In this case, you need an explanation from an expert. However, I will offer my two cents and hope that I don't mislead anybody. The gain for cubing and winning vs, losing your market here is 9.3% in MWC.... 100% MWC for cubing and winning the match, vs. 90.7 MWC if you lose your market. The risk for cubing, and then losing the match is much larger. So you are risking a lot to gain a little. My rule of thumb is to cube when I have a sure cash, or when I have about 3 rolls left in the bearoff. I hope somebody steps in with the theory here, because I would love to learn it too.
Sebalotek said, "P.P.S. It also fits exactly with the MET which reads 9.276 for 7a-1a. But the current score isn't 7a-1a. It's 7a-3a for the CPU "
The math for making the take/drop decision considers the scores at take and win, take and lose, and the drop score and considers a few other factors such as volatility, the opportunity to recube, and perhaps a few other considerations. If black doubles, white's choice will be between dropping which will put the score at 1a7a Crawford (9.3%) and taking the cube. This game will decide the match if white takes, because white will redouble to 8. White will only take the cube if she has a better chance of winning the match by winning this game, than if she drops. Therefore, white will take if she has more than 9.3% wins in this game.
Hope that I have helped.
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