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Fifteen against one isn't a fair fight

Posted By: scotty
Date: Wednesday, 31 May 2017, at 3:49 a.m.

In Response To: Fifteen against one isn't a fair fight (Timothy Chow)

white's dead cube takepoint is about 19%, and the cube will be dead if white takes.

I will estimate that white has 30% wins if blue fails to make the bar point on the next roll, and 10% wins otherwise. Gammons are negligible for both sides. (I have no basis in fact for those numbers, just consider them to be wild guestimates.)

Blue has 26 numbers that make the bar point. Give white 2.6 wins out of 26 if blue makes the bar point. Give white 3 wins out of 36 if blue fails to make the bar point. This totals 5.6 wins for white, which is definitely less than the 19% needed to take.

Double/Drop

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