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63 at GS -- Rollout and Variants

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Monday, 17 July 2017, at 6:44 a.m.

In Response To: OTB & RO (John O'Hagan)





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 100
2 point match
Crawford
pip: 103
score: 1

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-BA-ACCBA---b-a--bbcBbab--:0:0:1:63:1:0:1:2:10

Original position


1.Rollout120/14* 5/2eq: -0.191
Player:
Opponent:		58.57% (G:20.36% B:0.38%)
41.43% (G:18.12% B:2.31%)		Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.196...-0.186) - [100.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 35 seconds
2.Rollout18/2 7/4eq: -0.205 (-0.014)
Player:
Opponent:		42.44% (G:2.90% B:0.02%)
57.56% (G:2.68% B:0.09%)		Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.208...-0.202) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 53 seconds
3.Rollout120/14* 7/4eq: -0.240 (-0.049)
Player:
Opponent:		58.38% (G:21.01% B:0.33%)
41.62% (G:20.38% B:3.45%)		Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.246...-0.234) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 53 seconds
4.3-ply8/2 6/3eq: -0.238 (-0.047)
Player:
Opponent:		40.58% (G:1.81% B:0.00%)
59.42% (G:2.50% B:0.03%)
5.3-ply7/4 7/1eq: -0.251 (-0.060)
Player:
Opponent:		40.06% (G:1.62% B:0.01%)
59.94% (G:2.59% B:0.04%)
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller


John's rollout of his original position appears above.

Two close variants, where the hit is dead wrong, are shown below.

Nack





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 101
2 point match
Crawford
pip: 103
score: 1

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-BA-ACCBA---b-a--bbcBbba--:0:0:1:63:1:0:1:2:10

Variant (One-pip change, White is adjusted 2/3)


1.Rollout18/2 7/4eq: -0.209
Player:
Opponent:		42.62% (G:2.55% B:0.02%)
57.38% (G:3.06% B:0.09%)		Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.210...-0.207) - [100.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 19 seconds
2.Rollout18/2 6/3eq: -0.237 (-0.028)
Player:
Opponent:		41.31% (G:2.01% B:0.02%)
58.69% (G:3.17% B:0.11%)		Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.239...-0.236) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 04 seconds
3.Rollout120/14* 5/2eq: -0.239 (-0.031)
Player:
Opponent:		57.19% (G:20.41% B:0.32%)
42.81% (G:19.16% B:2.89%)		Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.242...-0.237) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 03 seconds
4.Rollout120/14* 7/4eq: -0.248 (-0.040)
Player:
Opponent:		57.58% (G:22.43% B:0.46%)
42.42% (G:19.99% B:4.20%)		Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.251...-0.245) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 54 seconds
5.Rollout17/4 7/1eq: -0.251 (-0.043)
Player:
Opponent:		40.98% (G:2.34% B:0.03%)
59.02% (G:3.55% B:0.19%)		Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.253...-0.250) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 39 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 74931287
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 104
2 point match
Crawford
pip: 103
score: 1

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-BA-ACCBA---b-a-bb-cBbab--:0:0:1:63:1:0:1:2:10

Variant (Compared to the original, White owns her 9pt instead of 7pt)


1.Rollout18/2 7/4eq: -0.171
Player:
Opponent:		44.75% (G:3.48% B:0.02%)
55.25% (G:3.32% B:0.13%)		Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.173...-0.170) - [100.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 06 seconds
2.Rollout18/2 6/3eq: -0.202 (-0.031)
Player:
Opponent:		43.48% (G:2.74% B:0.02%)
56.52% (G:3.60% B:0.16%)		Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.204...-0.201) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 32 seconds
3.Rollout120/14* 5/2eq: -0.209 (-0.037)
Player:
Opponent:		58.65% (G:23.23% B:0.31%)
41.35% (G:19.08% B:2.69%)		Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.211...-0.206) - [0.0%]
Duration: 16 minutes 20 seconds
4.Rollout27/4 7/1eq: -0.220 (-0.049)
Player:
Opponent:		43.11% (G:2.52% B:0.01%)
56.89% (G:4.10% B:0.30%)		Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.224...-0.216) - [0.0%]
Duration: 45.6 seconds
5.Rollout220/14* 7/4eq: -0.229 (-0.057)
Player:
Opponent:		58.89% (G:24.91% B:0.51%)
41.11% (G:20.32% B:4.23%)		Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.235...-0.222) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 32 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 35470494
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 35470494
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

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