| 1. | XG Roller++ | 24/16 13/9(2) | eq: +0.311 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 60.26% (G:6.65% B:0.22%)
39.74% (G:8.20% B:0.22%) | |
|
| 2. | XG Roller++ | 13/5(2) | eq: +0.183 (-0.128) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 54.62% (G:10.74% B:0.35%)
45.38% (G:9.14% B:0.27%) | |
|
In the roll sequence of 65-22-44, Blue's routine play is P (Point, 13/5(2)) -- best by far. However, in your example White did not play the standard N (13/11(2) 6/4(2)) with her roll of 22. Instead, she played E (24/22(2) 6/4(2)), leading to a non-standard third roll position in which (a) the value difference between Blue's (6-blocking) 9pt and his 5pt is minimized, and (b) a checker run to the 16pt is exposed to only a single shot (4s instead of both 4s and 2s).
Compare the relative equities of the two 44 plays in your position above to those of the variant below, in which (essentially) only two deuces have been played. That helps highlight the "(a)" part of the equation. [The "(b)" part may be more obvious.]
Nack
| 1. | XG Roller++ | 13/5(2) | eq: +0.408 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 58.88% (G:17.27% B:1.15%)
41.12% (G:8.93% B:0.30%) | |
|
| 2. | XG Roller++ | 24/16 13/9(2) | eq: +0.383 (-0.025) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 60.44% (G:11.26% B:0.44%)
39.56% (G:8.61% B:0.28%) | |
|
