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Dropping the free double

Posted By: Michael
Date: Saturday, 8 December 2018, at 5:42 p.m.

In Response To: Dropping the free double (Bob Koca)

Ok trying to answer the Original question I downloaded the Post Crawford METable used by GNUBg upto 64A.
The values shown at XG are rounded off to 2 digits hence can't be used.
Notice the published Table here (as well as in other sites on the net)
http://www.bkgm.com/articles/Kazaross/RockwellKazarossMET/index.html
has an error at 25A PC.
The value according to the guys at GNUbg shouldn't be 0.001230 but 0.001181 instead.

Here's the full table.
The Take points can be calculated using the Risk/(Risk+Gain) formula and results are as shown on 3rd column.

PC Away MWC Opp.TP %
1 0.500000
2 0.488030 50.00
3 0.322640 2.39
4 0.310020 33.89
5 0.190120 3.91
6 0.180720 38.67
7 0.115590 4.94
8 0.109060 36.04
9 0.069530 5.65
10 0.065161 36.25
11 0.042069 6.28
12 0.039060 35.44
13 0.025371 7.15
14 0.023428 35.05
15 0.015304 7.66
16 0.014050 34.68
17 0.009240 8.19
18 0.008420 34.23
19 0.005560 8.87
20 0.005050 33.97
21 0.003360 9.17
22 0.003030 33.47
23 0.002030 9.82
24 0.001820 33.00
25 0.001181 10.34
26 0.001061 35.11
27 0.000697 10.16
28 0.000625 34.31
29 0.000409 10.33
30 0.000367 34.56
31 0.000240 10.27
32 0.000216 34.60
33 0.000141 10.00
34 0.000127 34.72
35 0.000083 9.93
36 0.000075 34.65
37 0.000049 9.64
38 0.000044 34.67
39 0.000029 10.20
40 0.000026 34.09
41 0.000017 10.34
42 0.000015 34.62
43 0.000010 11.76
44 0.000009 33.33
45 0.000006 10.00
46 0.000005
47 0.000003
48 0.000003
49 0.000002
50 0.000002
51 0.000001
52 0.000001
53 0.000001
54 0.000001

Using this Table I constructed this graph here.

https://drive.google.com/open?id=1bW4Wxq6chYQriuBabo7nhT_mq5FlX3Xa

Assuming the projection of the METable was done correctly at least upto 37A then it looks the
Max TP at Odd away is about 10.5%. However looking at what happens from 37A to 45A I really doubt the projection
was correct. All these things have to be revised imo. Unfortunately I am not a Mathematician ;-)

Messages In This Thread

• Dropping the free double
  Bob Koca -- Monday, 3 December 2018, at 5:37 p.m.
  • Dropping the free double
    Bill Finneran -- Monday, 3 December 2018, at 6:51 p.m.
    • Dropping the free double
      Bob Koca -- Monday, 3 December 2018, at 8:38 p.m.
  • Dropping the free double
    Maik Stiebler -- Tuesday, 4 December 2018, at 9:09 a.m.
    • Dropping the free double
      David Rockwell -- Saturday, 8 December 2018, at 5:35 a.m.
      • Dropping the free double
        Maik Stiebler -- Saturday, 8 December 2018, at 8:53 a.m.
    • Dropping the free double
      Michael -- Saturday, 8 December 2018, at 9:00 p.m.
      • Dropping the free double
        Maik Stiebler -- Sunday, 9 December 2018, at 7:57 a.m.
  • Dropping the free double
    Neil Robins -- Tuesday, 4 December 2018, at 9:21 p.m.
    • Dropping the free double
      Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 5 December 2018, at 12:10 a.m.
      • Dropping the free double
        Michael -- Wednesday, 5 December 2018, at 10:44 p.m.
        • Dropping the free double
          Bob Koca -- Friday, 7 December 2018, at 3:45 a.m.
          • Dropping the free double
            Neil Robins -- Friday, 7 December 2018, at 11:44 a.m.
            • Try this one even
              Neil Robins -- Friday, 7 December 2018, at 12:03 p.m.
              • Try this one even
                Dmitriy Obukhov -- Friday, 7 December 2018, at 10:31 p.m.
                • Try this one even
                  Neil Robins -- Saturday, 8 December 2018, at 11:25 a.m.
                  • Try this one even
                    Michael -- Saturday, 8 December 2018, at 4:54 p.m.
  • Dropping the free double
    Michael -- Saturday, 8 December 2018, at 5:42 p.m.