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Winning probability doesn't depend on match length?!

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Thursday, 8 June 2023, at 12:57 a.m.

In Response To: Winning probability doesn't depend on match length?! (rambiz)

Yes, it should be a reasonable model under those assumptions. I'd still have to think about whether I agree with Kaufmann's derivation of his formula under those assumptions, but you're right that I'm mainly concerned that gammons and the cube could change things significantly.

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