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An interesting question!

Posted By: Jim Stutz
Date: Wednesday, 17 January 2024, at 8:51 p.m.

In Response To: OT - basketball (christian munk-christensen)

IMO, a rebound has substantially more value than an assist. In the NBA (for example), the average possession is worth a little over 1 point, which I値l round down to 1. If a team manages to rebound the ball after a missed shot, no matter which side has taken the shot, then its score expectation is on average +1 as a result, and the other team痴 is -1, for a net, incremental value of +2 points for the rebound itself. Meanwhile, assists are valuable, and they can be great theater for the spectators, but they池e not worth +2 points per assist, or anywhere close to that, IMO. For starters, the team in position to get credit for an assist already has possession of the ball, and (as Bob pointed out), the shooter actually has to make the shot, no matter how brilliant the setup pass. I would guess (without any data) that, across all NBA players, teams and game situations, a rebound is worth on average ~twice what an assist is worth.

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