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OK, I’ll try to make it worth your time. I will prop you $500 that your logic is wrong.

Posted By: Jim Stutz
Date: Monday, 22 January 2024, at 9:04 p.m.

In Response To: Maybe not entirely OT, given the importance of equity in backgammon (Bob Koca)

My logic: Given that a 2-point basket is worth 2 points to the team that scores, and a 3-point basket is worth 3 points, and given that on average an NBA team scores 1 point per possession, then a rebound is worth on average 2 points to the team that wins the loose ball.

You wrote: “Your analysis is making the rebounds twice as valuable as they are. Like I said in the other post the opponent will be getting the ball back. You aren't actually taking a possession away from them, just delaying it.”

I prop $500 that my statement above, with respect to the value of a rebound, is valid, and yours is not. (If you accept, I’m happy to have Timothy or Nack arbitrate, if either one is interested and agrees.)

If you’re worried that I won’t pay, well, that’s always a reasonable concern when wagering with someone you only know casually. We have some mutual acquaintances I’ve wagered with on many occasions over the years – Victor and Chris among them. You may wish to ask them whether I pay my debts, and how promptly I pay them.

I recognize that I've been dead wrong many times, and I might well be dead wrong here. If so, no problem -- it's well worth $500 to me to have a quant PHD such as yourself prove to me why I'm wrong.

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