| |
BGonline.org Forums
OK, I’ll try to make it worth your time. I will prop you $500 that your logic is wrong.
Posted By: Jim Stutz In Response To: OK, I’ll try to make it worth your time. I will prop you $500 that your logic is wrong. (Bob Koca)
Date: Tuesday, 23 January 2024, at 7:37 a.m.
“Do you agree we could talk about the jump ball to start an overtime period instead of it being a rebound?”
No. My prop is clearly worded as is. I believe I have defined all of the important givens within the plain language of the prop. I’m not agreeing to any changes in wording. (I happen to agree that a jump ball is tantamount to a loose ball after a missed shot, but this is irrelevant to my prop, and I don’t want to confuse the issue.)
“Suppose that team A could sacrifice points on the scoreboard to guarantee they win that jump ball. You are saying the breakeven point (given the teams score 1 point per possession on average) is 2 points or are you saying it is some other value (possibly fractional, 1.5 could be interpreted as flipping a fair coin and then giving up either 1 or 2).”
I'm not sure where you're headed with this, but it doesn't matter to me. You certainly have every right to make an argument to support your logic based on any supposition you like, but the givens are the givens, and the prop is the prop, exactly as I have written it, word for word.
To repeat:
My logic: Given that a 2-point basket is worth 2 points to the team that scores, and a 3-point basket is worth 3 points, and given that on average an NBA team scores 1 point per possession, then a rebound is worth on average 2 points to the team that wins the loose ball.
You wrote: “Your analysis is making the rebounds twice as valuable as they are. Like I said in the other post the opponent will be getting the ball back. You aren't actually taking a possession away from them, just delaying it.”
I prop $500 that my statement above, with respect to the value of a rebound, is valid, and yours is not.
When you assert that, after a rebound: “..the opponent will be getting the ball back. You aren't actually taking a possession away from them, just delaying it.” -- this is where you’re wrong, IMO. When winning a rebound you ARE, in fact, “taking a possession away from them”, which is exactly why a rebound is worth twice the value of a uncontested possession, no matter what point value you choose to assign to a possession. Years ago the standard rule in basketball called for a jump ball after every basket by either team. If that were the current rule in the NBA, it would change the value of a possession, but it would have no effect on the relative value of a rebound – it would still be worth twice the value of an uncontested possession. Likewise, if the NBA were to change its rule and allow the scoring team to keep the ball after a basket (“winner’s outs”), this would mean that there would be no certainty that the opponent would EVER regain possession of the ball. It doesn’t matter to my logic. A rebound would still be worth twice the value of a possession. The crux of your argument, that I have overvalued a rebound because “..the opponent will be getting the ball back... etc.”, is a classic non sequitur, IMO.
| |
BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.