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BGonline.org Forums
Explain this rollout result
Posted By: Daniel Murphy In Response To: Explain this rollout result (bob koca)
Date: Sunday, 21 September 2008, at 3:57 a.m.
Did you see the number of games involved?
Yes, but the SDs, small as they are, are large for plays this close.
PLAY CF 1 SD = CF +- 1 SD CF +- 2 SDs Play 1. 0.645329 0.001225 0.644104 ~ 0.646554 0.642879 ~ 0.647779 Play 2. 0.641405 0.001277 0.640128 ~ 0.642682 0.638851 ~ 0.643959 Play 4. 0.634678 0.003890 0.630788 ~ 0.638568 0.626898 ~ 0.642458 They're close. Barring a quick closeout there's a lot of play left in the game. How much faith do you have in 2-ply?
The rollout does not convince me that 8/6(2) is part of the best play. It just seems too strange to give up all chance of a 345678 six-prime and give Blue an out with 2-6 from the bar. If it is the best play, I'd speculate that it adds oomph to quick attacks on the acepoint leading to the extra gammons that Gnubg says it wins with that play. But I'm not believing it, for now.
By the way -- about something Happy said -- after 24/22(2) 13/9 ... Blue rolls 4-1, 2-ply does play bar/24 6/2, but 3-ply volunteers a shot with bar/24 13/9.
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