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NG-OLM #5

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Thursday, 9 October 2008, at 4:19 p.m.

In Response To: NG-OLM #5 (Stick)

Sarcasm will come back and bite you.

Hitting doesn't look right. It doesn't hurt Stick unless he rolls 6-6. It hurts us quite a bit to double blot from the midpoint, timingwise.

I see three candidates: 25/24, 8/5; 25/22, 6/5; and 25/21.

The 22-21 backgame is easier to time than the 24-22. So that rules out making the 24-point for me. Thus I start with 25/22. Stick will give preference to making the 16-point (five in a row) meaning that by staying on the 22-point with our spare, it will be blocked.

The question is: how much do we gain in escaping chances by moving up now (22/21) compared to how much we gain offensively by slotting the 5-point?

I count 21*11/(36*36) chances to escape the spare back checker next time if we move up. That's about 18% chance. It's not a great result, even if we pull it off, but I think it's better than simply slotting the 5-point. (Technically I should count the number of times Stick fails to cover the 16-point because those give us 6's to escape from the 22-point if we leave the spare there. But it's small enough not to affect the decision, IMO.)

Summary: 25/21.

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