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Chuck/ZEUS

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Monday, 10 November 2008, at 3:00 p.m.

In Response To: Chuck/ZEUS (dc-ohio)

The 53% (historical data) has a standard deviation of several percent (3-4%, I think). Also, one needs to make sure to only use data since the kickoff was moved from the 35 back to the 30, which happened starting with the 1994 season (I'm pretty sure). That makes a few percent difference in the absolute P(winning), with the current rule even better for the cointoss winner.

One NFL team front-office person told us that with a strong defense he would actually choose to KO if he won the toss! We put in the Baltimore Ravens team that won the Super Bowl (was it 2000 or 2001?) -- who had one of the best defenses ever and an offense that was no better than average in the league. Even that team was a favorite receiving and an underdog kicking (vs. an average team) and it wasn't close -- something like an 8% GWC regurgitation to choose to kick. When you think about, if your defense is so good that it's going to clamp down on the other team, why not take the ball and at worst punt it to them if you can't move into FG range? It's like a free roll.

There could be wind conditions that favor choosing the direction, though, over choosing receive/kick. We've not enough data to really analyze this outlier situation.

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