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Agree

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Wednesday, 12 November 2008, at 2:26 p.m.

In Response To: 3% is a lot (neilkaz)

Anyone here can easily to the math but just to make it clear, averaging 6% errors per game costs ~1 win per season in the NFL (where they play 16 regular season games). No matter how you judge it (prestige, pride, fan approval, media coverage, or $), one game per season is huge.

Although it's not even close to being a uniform relationship, early and middle in a match I've noticed that 1% GWC is approximately equivalent to 0.1 emg. (Contrast that to DMP where 1% GWC = 0.02 emg, the smallest ratio in a match, I think.)

So, equivalently, in backgammon jargon Chicago's decision to punt was in effect buying a triple Whopper at BK. (Maybe coaches expected to be facing a hungry team at halftime.)

Messages In This Thread

• Chuck/ZEUS
  Bill Riles -- Monday, 10 November 2008, at 2:13 a.m.
  • Chuck/ZEUS
    dc-ohio -- Monday, 10 November 2008, at 3:23 a.m.
    • Chuck/ZEUS
      Bill Riles -- Monday, 10 November 2008, at 4:02 a.m.
      • Chuck/ZEUS
        Bill Riles -- Monday, 10 November 2008, at 8:50 p.m.
    • Chuck/ZEUS
      Chuck Bower -- Monday, 10 November 2008, at 3:00 p.m.
  • Chuck/ZEUS
    Bob Koca -- Monday, 10 November 2008, at 3:31 a.m.
    • Chuck/ZEUS
      Bill Riles -- Monday, 10 November 2008, at 4:14 a.m.
      • Chuck/ZEUS
        Coolrey -- Monday, 10 November 2008, at 5:14 p.m.
        • Chuck/ZEUS
          Chuck Bower -- Monday, 10 November 2008, at 6:11 p.m.
          • PAT's (OT)
            neilkaz -- Monday, 10 November 2008, at 7:00 p.m.
            • PAT's (OT)
              Bill Riles -- Monday, 10 November 2008, at 7:11 p.m.
              • PAT's (OT)
                Coolrey -- Monday, 10 November 2008, at 10:28 p.m.
                • PAT's (OT)
                  Bill Riles -- Monday, 10 November 2008, at 11:29 p.m.
            • PAT's (OT)
              Bob Koca -- Monday, 10 November 2008, at 7:30 p.m.
              • PAT's (OT)
                neilkaz -- Monday, 10 November 2008, at 7:38 p.m.
                • PAT's (OT)
                  Coolrey -- Monday, 10 November 2008, at 10:27 p.m.
            • PAT's (OT)
              Coolrey -- Monday, 10 November 2008, at 10:15 p.m.
          • Chuck/ZEUS
            Coolrey -- Monday, 10 November 2008, at 10:12 p.m.
            • Chuck/ZEUS
              Chuck Bower -- Wednesday, 12 November 2008, at 5:07 p.m.
        • Chuck/ZEUS
          Matt Cohn-Geier -- Monday, 10 November 2008, at 7:30 p.m.
          • Chuck/ZEUS
            Coolrey -- Monday, 10 November 2008, at 10:10 p.m.
            • Chuck/ZEUS
              Bob Koca -- Monday, 10 November 2008, at 10:16 p.m.
              • Chuck/ZEUS
                Coolrey -- Monday, 10 November 2008, at 10:25 p.m.
            • Chuck/ZEUS
              Matt Cohn-Geier -- Monday, 10 November 2008, at 10:47 p.m.
              • Illustrative game
                Matt Cohn-Geier -- Tuesday, 11 November 2008, at 3:24 a.m.
  • Chuck/ZEUS
    Chuck Bower -- Monday, 10 November 2008, at 2:47 p.m.
    • Chuck/ZEUS
      Coolrey -- Monday, 10 November 2008, at 5:06 p.m.
  • Lovie Smith is a punting moron (OT)
    neilkaz -- Monday, 10 November 2008, at 3:31 p.m.
    • Lovie Smith is a punting moron (OT)
      Bill Riles -- Monday, 10 November 2008, at 4:13 p.m.
      • Lovie Smith is a punting moron (OT)
        Bill Riles -- Monday, 10 November 2008, at 4:23 p.m.
        • Lovie Smith is a punting moron (OT)
          neilkaz -- Monday, 10 November 2008, at 4:59 p.m.
          • Lovie Smith is a punting moron (OT)
            Bill Riles -- Monday, 10 November 2008, at 5:18 p.m.
            • Lovie Smith is a punting moron (OT)
              Coolrey -- Monday, 10 November 2008, at 9:40 p.m.
              • Lovie Smith is a punting moron (OT)
                Bill Riles -- Monday, 10 November 2008, at 10:02 p.m.
                • Lovie Smith is a punting moron (OT)
                  Coolrey -- Monday, 10 November 2008, at 10:19 p.m.
      • Lovie Smith is a punting moron (OT)
        John Little -- Monday, 10 November 2008, at 4:27 p.m.
    • Lovie Smith is a punting moron (OT)
      Coolrey -- Monday, 10 November 2008, at 5:04 p.m.
    • Lovie Smith is a punting moron (OT)
      Chuck Bower -- Monday, 10 November 2008, at 6:23 p.m.
    • Lovie Smith is a punting moron (OT)
      neilkaz -- Monday, 10 November 2008, at 10:58 p.m.
    • ZEUS says...
      Chuck Bower -- Tuesday, 11 November 2008, at 2:12 p.m.
      • 3% is a lot
        neilkaz -- Wednesday, 12 November 2008, at 3:48 a.m.
        • Agree
          Chuck Bower -- Wednesday, 12 November 2008, at 2:26 p.m.
  • ZEUS says
    Chuck Bower -- Monday, 10 November 2008, at 6:05 p.m.
    • ZEUS says
      Bill Riles -- Monday, 10 November 2008, at 6:06 p.m.
      • ZEUS says
        Bob Koca -- Monday, 10 November 2008, at 7:21 p.m.
        • ZEUS says
          Bill Riles -- Monday, 10 November 2008, at 7:58 p.m.
          • ZEUS says
            Coolrey -- Monday, 10 November 2008, at 9:36 p.m.
    • ZEUS says
      Bob Koca -- Monday, 10 November 2008, at 7:24 p.m.
      • ZEUS says
        Chuck Bower -- Monday, 10 November 2008, at 10:16 p.m.