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Chuck/ZEUS

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Wednesday, 12 November 2008, at 5:07 p.m.

In Response To: Chuck/ZEUS (Coolrey)

Between generic NFL teams (i.e. league average in all stat categories), out of the redzone they should convert in the high 60's on 4th and 1. (So this is the case for the Bears situation that Neil posted, ignoring the detailed characterisitics of the two teams -- which I didn't ignore when I calc'ed the 3% GWC error.) As you get close to the goalline, since the defense has less field to cover, the conversion chances drop considerably, particularly right at the goalline.

Kinda like in poker when the announcers say that a pair vs. two overcards is "a coinflip", converting 4th and short and/or 2-point conversion in NFL is "a coinflip" which can vary quite a bit away from 50-50 depending upon the exact circumstances.

Messages In This Thread

• Chuck/ZEUS
  Bill Riles -- Monday, 10 November 2008, at 2:13 a.m.
  • Chuck/ZEUS
    dc-ohio -- Monday, 10 November 2008, at 3:23 a.m.
    • Chuck/ZEUS
      Bill Riles -- Monday, 10 November 2008, at 4:02 a.m.
      • Chuck/ZEUS
        Bill Riles -- Monday, 10 November 2008, at 8:50 p.m.
    • Chuck/ZEUS
      Chuck Bower -- Monday, 10 November 2008, at 3:00 p.m.
  • Chuck/ZEUS
    Bob Koca -- Monday, 10 November 2008, at 3:31 a.m.
    • Chuck/ZEUS
      Bill Riles -- Monday, 10 November 2008, at 4:14 a.m.
      • Chuck/ZEUS
        Coolrey -- Monday, 10 November 2008, at 5:14 p.m.
        • Chuck/ZEUS
          Chuck Bower -- Monday, 10 November 2008, at 6:11 p.m.
          • PAT's (OT)
            neilkaz -- Monday, 10 November 2008, at 7:00 p.m.
            • PAT's (OT)
              Bill Riles -- Monday, 10 November 2008, at 7:11 p.m.
              • PAT's (OT)
                Coolrey -- Monday, 10 November 2008, at 10:28 p.m.
                • PAT's (OT)
                  Bill Riles -- Monday, 10 November 2008, at 11:29 p.m.
            • PAT's (OT)
              Bob Koca -- Monday, 10 November 2008, at 7:30 p.m.
              • PAT's (OT)
                neilkaz -- Monday, 10 November 2008, at 7:38 p.m.
                • PAT's (OT)
                  Coolrey -- Monday, 10 November 2008, at 10:27 p.m.
            • PAT's (OT)
              Coolrey -- Monday, 10 November 2008, at 10:15 p.m.
          • Chuck/ZEUS
            Coolrey -- Monday, 10 November 2008, at 10:12 p.m.
            • Chuck/ZEUS
              Chuck Bower -- Wednesday, 12 November 2008, at 5:07 p.m.
        • Chuck/ZEUS
          Matt Cohn-Geier -- Monday, 10 November 2008, at 7:30 p.m.
          • Chuck/ZEUS
            Coolrey -- Monday, 10 November 2008, at 10:10 p.m.
            • Chuck/ZEUS
              Bob Koca -- Monday, 10 November 2008, at 10:16 p.m.
              • Chuck/ZEUS
                Coolrey -- Monday, 10 November 2008, at 10:25 p.m.
            • Chuck/ZEUS
              Matt Cohn-Geier -- Monday, 10 November 2008, at 10:47 p.m.
              • Illustrative game
                Matt Cohn-Geier -- Tuesday, 11 November 2008, at 3:24 a.m.
  • Chuck/ZEUS
    Chuck Bower -- Monday, 10 November 2008, at 2:47 p.m.
    • Chuck/ZEUS
      Coolrey -- Monday, 10 November 2008, at 5:06 p.m.
  • Lovie Smith is a punting moron (OT)
    neilkaz -- Monday, 10 November 2008, at 3:31 p.m.
    • Lovie Smith is a punting moron (OT)
      Bill Riles -- Monday, 10 November 2008, at 4:13 p.m.
      • Lovie Smith is a punting moron (OT)
        Bill Riles -- Monday, 10 November 2008, at 4:23 p.m.
        • Lovie Smith is a punting moron (OT)
          neilkaz -- Monday, 10 November 2008, at 4:59 p.m.
          • Lovie Smith is a punting moron (OT)
            Bill Riles -- Monday, 10 November 2008, at 5:18 p.m.
            • Lovie Smith is a punting moron (OT)
              Coolrey -- Monday, 10 November 2008, at 9:40 p.m.
              • Lovie Smith is a punting moron (OT)
                Bill Riles -- Monday, 10 November 2008, at 10:02 p.m.
                • Lovie Smith is a punting moron (OT)
                  Coolrey -- Monday, 10 November 2008, at 10:19 p.m.
      • Lovie Smith is a punting moron (OT)
        John Little -- Monday, 10 November 2008, at 4:27 p.m.
    • Lovie Smith is a punting moron (OT)
      Coolrey -- Monday, 10 November 2008, at 5:04 p.m.
    • Lovie Smith is a punting moron (OT)
      Chuck Bower -- Monday, 10 November 2008, at 6:23 p.m.
    • Lovie Smith is a punting moron (OT)
      neilkaz -- Monday, 10 November 2008, at 10:58 p.m.
    • ZEUS says...
      Chuck Bower -- Tuesday, 11 November 2008, at 2:12 p.m.
      • 3% is a lot
        neilkaz -- Wednesday, 12 November 2008, at 3:48 a.m.
        • Agree
          Chuck Bower -- Wednesday, 12 November 2008, at 2:26 p.m.
  • ZEUS says
    Chuck Bower -- Monday, 10 November 2008, at 6:05 p.m.
    • ZEUS says
      Bill Riles -- Monday, 10 November 2008, at 6:06 p.m.
      • ZEUS says
        Bob Koca -- Monday, 10 November 2008, at 7:21 p.m.
        • ZEUS says
          Bill Riles -- Monday, 10 November 2008, at 7:58 p.m.
          • ZEUS says
            Coolrey -- Monday, 10 November 2008, at 9:36 p.m.
    • ZEUS says
      Bob Koca -- Monday, 10 November 2008, at 7:24 p.m.
      • ZEUS says
        Chuck Bower -- Monday, 10 November 2008, at 10:16 p.m.